North Korea has been quietly reshaping its South Korea policy since Lee Jae-myung took office, leaving open the possibility of easing tensions and pursuing limited cooperation. Pyongyang particularly views restoring the 2018 inter-Korean military agreement as a key test for improved relations.
According to a high-ranking Daily NK source in North Korea, the country doesn’t want war but will maintain its principle of meeting strength with strength, nuclear weapons with nuclear weapons, and full-scale war with full-scale war if necessary. However, internally, some officials say North Korea could interpret the restoration of the inter-Korean military agreement and additional military measures by Seoul’s new government as “signs of sincerity.”
The agreement in question is the September 19 inter-Korean military pact signed during the third inter-Korean summit in 2018. Though North Korea declared it completely terminated on November 23, 2023, Pyongyang apparently still wants it restored.
“The North will likely demand concrete actions rather than words to ease military tensions,” the source said. “The government fundamentally believes that reducing military tensions would help promote stability between the two countries.”
This suggests North Korea wants to avoid potential full-scale border clashes with the South while redirecting resources from the inter-Korean frontier toward economic development or advanced weapons programs.
“The government always believes it must focus labor and resources on major state projects like economic development or strategic weapons,” the source explained. “It sees this as true self-defense and the path to becoming a strong nation.”
North Korea remains skeptical about restarting the Kaesong Industrial Complex or Mount Kumgang tourism—former symbols of inter-Korean cooperation. Instead, the North has said it will develop these areas as “global tourism economy scenic spots,” signaling plans to convert them into international rather than inter-Korean projects.
However, the source said North Korea was open to “indirect and limited economic cooperation.” Such cooperation “would be difficult if approached with slogans about national unity and North-South reconciliation, or through anything other than company-to-company or group-to-group deals that link South Korea with China or Russia.”
N. Korea still wary of civilian exchanges
North Korea will likely take a more rigid stance on civilian exchanges between the two Koreas. “Even for non-political contacts in culture, sports, and arts, the authorities internally believe there’s a political calculation,” the source said. “They’ll conduct more thorough inspections because they think these contacts could be used maliciously as tools of external influence.”
This reflects North Korean authorities’ tendency to tightly control civilian exchanges, viewing them as potential threats to regime stability—consistent with three restrictive laws adopted since 2020 to block foreign culture and information.
If South Korea strengthens cooperation with the United States and Japan, North Korea plans to brand it a “new military fascist alliance.”
In response, the North would engage in provocations like expanding military reconnaissance satellite launches or deploying and test-launching tactical nuclear weapons, while explaining to the international community through its Foreign Ministry that its sovereignty “had been violated and nuclear arsenal expansion was unavoidable.”
Furthermore, if South Korea continues joint military exercises with the United States or increases defense spending, North Korea would prepare new military strategies across air, sea, undersea, and land domains, the source said.
