According to a new analysis from an institute in Seoul, early July saw the end of North Korea’s “aggression phase,” and now the U.S.’ and other countries’ “counterattack phase” has begun. In the future a “confrontation phase,” in which North Korea is on the defensive, will start.
A Researcher with the Korea Institute for National Unification, Park Hyung Jung has released an article on the institute website called “Predictions for offensive and counterattacking movements: the end of North Korea’s offensive phase,” in which he predicts that, “Presently, North Korea cannot accept the conditions suggested by the U.S. and other countries, and the U.S. and others will not acknowledge North Korea as a nuclear power.”
“Therefore, in this situation, international society will focus on the offensive and North Korea will lay stress upon the defensive. During this confrontational phase, there is a low possibility of dialogue or negotiation,” he claimed.
Researcher Park explained, “The reason why North Korea went on the offensive was that it has been in a strategic crisis since August of last year. That is, North Korea’s three national strategies arrived at an impasse: to maintain the current system without reforming or opening; to be implicitly acknowledged as a nuclear power; and to expand inter-Korean relations while achieving the two previous goals.”
However, “UN Security Council Resolution 1874 following the second nuclear test on May 25 pushed North Korea to shift its position onto the defensive.”
He added, “The U.S. is trying to put pressure on North Korea in various ways, so that Pyongyang will accept the conditions suggested by international society.”
“Of late, the U.S.’ focus has been on putting pressure on North Korea, rather than tempting it to come to the negotiating table. International society should make North Korea’s irreversible denuclearization the goal of future negotiations, and then should reward them on the basis of reciprocity.”
He noted, however, that, “This means complete surrender for North Korea, and therefore it may be more of a threat to the U.S. and South Korea than the situation so far has been.”
