While interest in the impending Chosun Workers’ Party Delegates’ Conference is building with Pyongyang watchers wondering how the event will relate to the succession of Kim Jong Eun, some experts note that the third son of Kim Jong Il is unlikely to make a personal appearance.

Park Young Ho, a senior researcher with the Korea Institute for National Unification, told a forum on September 7th, “It does not seem likely that Kim Jong Eun will make an appearance at the Chosun Workers’ Party Delegates’ Conference, and even if he does appear, it will be at a minimum level.”

Park went on, “If Kim Jong Eun makes an appearance on the political stage, then it will be to be nominated as a standing member of the Politburo. The positions of Jang Sung Taek and Oh Keuk Ryul in the Party and military are the important issues.”

He emphasized, “It seems too soon for Kim Jong Eun to step to the front. This Chosun Workers’ Party Delegates’ Conference should be understood in terms of the maintenance of the Party in preparation for the Kim Jong Eun succession system.”

Kim Byung Ro, a professor at Seoul National University, agreed, commenting, “It would be too much of political burden for Kim Jong Eun to make a big appearance. In North Korea, if Kim Jong Eun intends to make a frontal appearance, it will only be possible after accumulating more life and career experiences.”

Professor Kim explained the reason, “Even if Kim Jong Eun accedes to the succession, it will be hard for him to establish a guidance system due to economic difficulties. Therefore, North Korea’s management direction appears to be to concentrate on overcoming economic difficulties.”

He commented, “In order to legally select Kim Jong Eun as the leader, they have to go through the Chosun Workers’ Party Delegates’ Conference. However, in order to host the Chosun Workers’ Party Delegates’ Conference, they need to realize improvements to the people’s living standards, something which was emphasized by Kim Il Sung.”

Therefore, he added, “This Chosun Workers’ Party Delegates’ Conference will be a stepping stone to simplify the succession system by nominating personnel who will be of assistance in the succession system to important positions, even if Kim Jong Eun does not make a major appearance himself.”

On a different tack, a Professor of Political Science and Diplomacy at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Nam Kung Young told The Daily NK, “Since the Chosun Workers’ Party delegates conference is being held for the first time in 44 years, North Korea will want to make an important decision. According to the characteristics of the conference, they will announce a new national strategy.”

Professor Nam went on, “There is the possibility of the shape of the Kim Jong Eun succession structure being formalized at the Chosun Workers’ Party Delegates’ Conference and, simultaneously, Jang Sung Taek being nominated to a supporting role.”

Meanwhile, whether or not reform and opening is on the agenda is also a topic for debate.

Park doesn’t think so. He said, “If Kim Jong Il officially announces reform and opening, it will be welcomed very much. However, North Korea will not take that measure.”

On the same matter, however, Professor Kim argued the opposite position, commenting, “It appears that North Korea will express the intention to reform and open through this Chosun Workers’ Party Delegates’ Conference.”

Park added, “Economic difficulties will definitely be an obstacle to the establishment of the Kim Jong Eun succession system. But, as long as Kim Jong Il is present, opening will not be easy. Kim Jong Il appears to be strongly emphasizing the close relationship with China rather than reform and opening.”