A South Korean presidential envoy has
reportedly met with North Korea’s nominal head of state Kim Yong Nam in Moscow,
while attending the country’s Victory Day celebrations.
Lawmaker Yoon Sang Hyun from the ruling
Saenuri Party met briefly with the North’s President of the Supreme People’s
Assembly Presidium on Saturday, while laying flowers down for fallen soldiers,
following a mass military parade, according to a government official in Seoul
on Sunday.
The lawmaker was quoted by South Korea’s
Yonhap News Agency as saying he had met with Kim several times. Yoon said that
in those encounters he emphasized Seoul’s desire to make progress in
inter-Korean relations, to which Kim responded by saying “the two Koreas should
search for peace and unification by ending standoffs,” according to Yonhap.
Some speculate Kim may have reiterated
Pyongyang’s previous conditions for reopening inter-Korean talks that were
halting annual joint military drills held between Seoul and Washington as well
as banning South Korean civic groups from sending anti-Pyongyang leaflets
across the border. Such demands would dim the prospects for resuming talks,
experts say.
Also, with the North test-firing three
KN-01 antiship cruise missiles into the East Sea on Saturday and publicizing
through state-run media test-launching of a ballistic missile from a submarine
presided over by the leader Kim Jong Eun, some believe the likelihood of the
North maintaining an aggressive stance towards the outside world seems greater.
Even if talks take place, Pyongyang is
likely to demand Seoul lift the so-called “May 24th Measures,” which includes
bans on all manner of trade between the two Koreas [save the Kaesong Industrial
Complex], and resume tourism at Mt. Geumgang in the North on top of demands to
pull the plug on military drills the South holds with the U.S. Analysts say it
would be hard for the Park Geun Hye administration, which has upheld a strong
commitment to principle-based policies, to make sudden changes in sanctions or
tourism without seeing visible results from the North.
“(South Korea’s) unification minister Hong
Yong Pyo said there would be a breakthrough in inter-Korean relations in May,
but if you say that the North will think it has the upper hand in things,” Moon
Sun Bo, the director of defense strategy at the Korea Institute for Liberal
Democracy, told Daily NK. “If the South indicates that it wants to engage in talks,
the North will use this and try to be more aggressive.”
“Even
if Kim Yong Nam and Yoon Sang Hyun met, the North could have again raised the
issue of ‘May 24th Measures’ and Mt. Geumgang tourism as preconditions for
talks,” the expert said. “In the future, the North may test-fire missiles to
realize its goals rather than trying to accommodate the South’s demands,” he
added.
Another North Korea watcher, who spoke with
Daily NK on condition of anonymity, reflected similar sentiments, saying, “If
the South keeps on offering talks, the North will think they are desperate, so
the idea of establishing contact with them or reopening talks with them in the
way that the South wants will become a more remote possibility.” The expert
also said the recent meeting between Seoul’s lawmaker and Pyongyang’s Kim Yong
Nam will not yield any significant effects on inter-Korean relations.
