The Korea Rural Economic Institute (KREI) concludes that if North Korea were to receive no international aid this year, it would fall short of its minimum food requirement by around 1.2 million tons.
The KREI report, “Prediction of Food Balance in 2010, North Korea,” also points out that the volume of this year’s aid is highly uncertain.
The report estimates that North Korea’s grain production for the coming fall will amount to around 3.8-4 million tons.
However, according to the report, domestic demand for grain in 2010 will be around 5.23 million tons in total: 4.058 million tons for food; 0.3 million tons for feedstock; 0.17 million tons for seeds; 0.12 million tons for processed food; and 0.58 million tons as losses. These figures were calculated based on the minimum demand of approximately 24.3 million people.
The report explained, “Therefore, the food situation this year relies only on how much food the international community will give. However, whether or not South Korea will provide North Korea with food this year is still unclear.”
Actually, South Korea is trying to provide a small amount of food immediately, but it was reported this weekend that attempts to provide 10,000 tons of corn have hit problems.
The South Korean government intended to purchase Chinese corn on the open market and then transport it to the North, but China’s own grain export quota system is getting in the way at present, raising concerns that the aid may not arrive before the peak season of food insecurity, the spring.
Based on past averages, China is itself likely to provide the North with around 0.3 million tons of food aid this year.
Meanwhile, according to the South Korean Ministry of Unification, North Korea produced approximately 4.11 million tons of food last year, which was around 1.3 million tons short of demand.
