South and North Korea failed to reach an agreement on the hosting of high level military talks during Tuesday and Wednesday’s meeting at Panmunjom. Indeed, they failed to even set the schedule for the next meeting, presenting the possibility that the atmosphere for dialogue may rapidly cool off.
As the working-level meeting rolled over into Wednesday, it was taken to be a good sign that the high level meeting would come to pass. Indeed, Colonel Mun Sang Gyun, the South Korean delegate, stated before the second day’s talks commenced, “Yesterday’s atmosphere was good, and we are doing our best.”
However, ultimately South and North Korea allegedly could not reduce their differences in terms of agenda and level of the following meeting’s participants.
In advance of the meeting, South Korea emphasized that inter-Korean relations could advance only if North Korea took responsibility for the Cheonan incident and shelling of Yeonpyeong Island and promised to prevent additional provocations.
Whereas, North Korea proposed that the incidents be considered mutual provocations to be dealt with at the high level talks themselves, asserting, “Saying let’s deal with the Cheonan incident and bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island only is the same as rejecting the high level military talks.”
In the end, the South Korean government’s position of addressing the Cheonan and Yeonpyeong Island incidents first and North Korea’s position of trying to move forward without comment on past deeds were irreconcilable.
Furthermore, the two sides also came into conflict on the issue of what level the participants at the high level talks would be.
South Korea demanded that in order to receive an explanation for the Cheonan incident, the Minister of National Defense and Minister of the People’s Armed Forces or Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (General) and Army Chief of Staff (Vice-Marshal) would need to lead the meeting. However, North Korea claimed that a vice-ministerial official like the Vice-Director of People’s Armed Force (General and Colonel General) and Army Deputy Chief of Staff of the Bureau of General Staff (General and Colonel General) would be correct.
Now, since the working level meeting has broken down, attention is gathering on North Korea’s future response. North Korea will probably mobilize the Chosun Central News Agency and try to place the responsibility for the breakdown on the South Korean government. Either way, things are likely to go cold for a spell.
On the other hand, however, North Korea, which desperately needs humanitarian support from South Korea and is under some pressure to improve inter-Korean relations from China, is unlikely to go against the atmosphere of dialogue itself.
Choi Jin Wook, a senior analyst with the Korea Institute of National Unification (KINU), told The Daily NK, “They left the room in a stagnant state rather than at a breakdown. It could turn out be a long battle.”
Whether or not the South Korean government will ultimately agree to the previously agreed-on South-North Red Cross Talks in the situation where they have yet to confirm North Korea’s sincerity is unclear.
In the South Korean government’s notice agreeing to the Red Cross contacts, which they subsequently backtracked on, it was stated, “Specific date and location should be negotiated between both parties after the high level military talks between South and North Korea.” Needless to say, if such a meeting cannot be agreed upon, it will be hard to go around that to the Red Cross Talks.
Nevertheless, in Choi’s opinion, “From the South Korean government’s perspective, separated family reunions are the priority. Therefore, there is the necessity of using the situation as a means to induce North Korea to change by dragging the situation rather than cutting it off cold-heartedly.”
