[imText1]What will be North Korea’s main strategy toward South Korea?
North Korea will take strategies according to the situations on the Korean peninsula in 2006. The “New Year Cooperative Column” emphasized, “Let’s form a powerful three-level patriotic movement for independent unification, anti-war peace, Minjok (nation, brethren) mass unity exclusively by our Minjok only.
In summary, North Korea’s strategies toward South Korea will likely be containment with the US under the “Our Minjok Only”, the spread of anti-American sentiment and destabilization of liberal democracy fundamentals.
① Anti-American Sentiment / Our Minjok Only
The “New Year Cooperative Column” stated that (the two Koreas) must move toward independent unification. The core element of the North Korean “Minjok independency” is “Achieving the unification by driving out the Americans by the power of our Minjok.”
The “New Year Cooperative Column” also articulates, “We must fuel the fire of struggle for guarding anti-war-peace.” This means the South and the North must take countermeasures together to respond to the threat of war in the Korean peninsula. In other words, North Korea is arguing that the North Korean nuclear weapons must be justified as a means to “defend the Korean peninsula from the threat of war.”
Meanwhile, North Korea will attempt to take advantage of the Roh administration as much as possible, manipulating the situation using the South-North Summit of which the South Korean government demands. While it asks for the discontinuation of the ROK-US alliance, it will demand government aid of food, fertilizer, heavy industry products and secure cash through the Kaesung Industrial Complex, Geumgang Mountain Tour, and Baekdu Mountain Tour.
② Spread of pro-North Korea / Anti-American Sentiment
It seems as though North Korea will attempt for a mass spread of pro-North/Anti-US sentiment in South Korea. The “New Year Cooperative Column” writes, “Realization of the Great Minjok Unity is the most urgent demand.”
Spread of pro-North/anti-US sentiment in South Korea is one of the fundamental strategies North Korea had kept in plan. It is likely that North Korea will invite many more organizations for the purpose of expanding civilian relations and it will push the South Korean government to secure legal activities of the pro-North force.
In order to amplify the effort for appeasement and cooperation with the North, the current South Korean government will take a step toward extensive government meetings and summits with the North.
With the presidential election coming up, there will be much criticism against the Grand National Party (GNP). The Kim Jong Il regime has every reason to prevent the change in seat making the GNP the ruling party in the coming presidential election. Recently, North Korea has criticized the NGP for the “cleaning out the past history” a number of times. Furthermore, the North expressed a high suspicion against the “New-Right movement” that puts forth North Korean human rights and democracy in the front lines.
③ Destabilizing Fundamentals of South Korea
North Korea will stimulate the anti-Japan sentiment in South Korea mentioning the “cleaning out the past history” trying to create a conflict situation and hostility. It seems as though the North will strongly demand for the destruction of the “three walls.” On the 17th, during South-North minister level summit, Kwon Ho Woong, the North Korean representative, suggested solving the so called “three walls” – political, military and economic walls.
The details of the “three walls” are ▶ No restriction on visitors’ (representatives) visiting sites ▶ No more criticisms against each other ▶No disrespect of each other’s demands (ideas) and abolition of old laws and the institution system.
The purpose of the suggestion for destruction of the three walls are △ systemization of South Korean representatives’ visit to the Keumsu Mountain Memorial Palace (Kim Il Sung Corpse Palace) and Patriot Cemetery △ legalization of the system to protect pro-North Korea forces such as Professor Kang Jung Gu △ and to induce abolition of the National Security Law.
④ Active Move Against the North Korean Human Rights Movement
North Korea will use all means possible to prevent the international influence of “the Seoul International (NK) Human Rights Conference” held last December. It will not only attempt to spread anti-American sentiment through the Rodong Sinmun and Chosun Central Broadcasting but use the talks between the South and the North as a means to shut up the South Korean government on the North Korean human rights issues. There lies a high possibility of the mobilization of pro-North Korea organizations and set up confrontation and friction with the North Korean human rights organizations.