[imText1]The US President George Bush personally stated the issue of taking the North Korean nuclear matter to the UN Security Council. Although Condoleezza Rice the US National Security Advisor and the White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan have mentioned about it before but this is the first time to be affirmed by the President himself. Due to his unexpected statement, there are some wondering whether or not the North Korean nuclear problem will enter a new phase.
Furthermore, President Bush described Kim Jong Il as, “dangerous person” and “tyranny.” He withheld such expression for some time, but now it seems such expressions are now back. How would Kim Jong Il react to President Bush’s press conference and his answers to the questions? To which direction will the nuclear problem head to?
1. North Korea Heavily Criticizes United States
First of all, Kim Jong Il will react fiercely to Bush calling him a “tyranny” rather than Bush taking the nuclear issues to the Security Council. When President Bush used same expressions last August, North Korea responded by giving a statement through the Foreign Ministry spokesman of the Korean Central News Agency, who stated, “Bush is the true tyranny of the tyrannies worse than Hitler.” Apart from that, North Korea said many things to “pay back” ten folds or hundred folds. It may not be that different this time.
About the US intention to halt the North Korean nuclear development through the six party talks, the same statement emphasized, “Overthrow of our regime is the original intention of the US.” It is predictable that North Korea will once again emphasize the same expression and give out another statement which will say, “We will think taking the matter to the Security Council as a declaration of war,” and “We do no fear war. We are sufficiently ready.”
2. North Korean Nuclear Reprocessing Completion Announcement and Security Council Draft
About the time the US refer the North Korean nuclear problem to the Security council, North Korea will be “ready in preparation.” The Security Council draft is not an easy card to use. If any of the Security Council members veto, the American intention could end as only an attempt.
Therefore, by the time the Security Council is ready to reach an agreement, which means China and Russia agrees with the US, only then will the matter taken to the Security Council. This the reason why Bush emphasized on “agreement of the participating countries (the six party talks) about the Security Council draft on the North Korean nuclear problem. The preparation to draw out the agreement could take several months.
Meanwhile, there is a high possibility of North Korea to extract fuel rods from the currently frozen nuclear reactor and once it completes the reprocessing, it will give out a statement announcing, “We have strengthened nuclear resistance.” Assuming that the reprocessing took place during March and April, we could predict the statement to come out around August or September. By the time the member of the six party talks will run out of patience toward North Korea and agree to the need to limit the North Korean regime. Around that time, other countries will support the Security Council draft too.
3. Economic Sanction, North Korea Completely Isolated if China Agrees
What could be agreed at the Security Council level about the regime limitation would be something like economic sanction. In fact, the effect of an economic sanction alone is small. However, if China joins, the situation turns around 180 degrees. Currently, China has an absolute role in the North Korean economy. For example, if the oil pipelines from China to North Korea are to be cut for few days, North Korea will be seriously affected.
What is doubtful, though, is whether Kim Jong Il really is unable to predict such a result. It seems as though Kim Jong Il is aware of how seriously it will be affected if China agrees on the economic sanction to be imposed on North Korea, but it believes that the possibility of Chinese agreement is very low. North Korea is also probably aware of the fact that South Korea believes the US will not hastily use armed force against North Korea.
For that reason, jus as a person who enjoys bungee jumping jumps down to long miles off the cliff with a full confidence on the ropes holding him, Kim Jong is playing the nuclear game at its full capacity with an international sense that tells him, “China will not be able to abandon me” or “American will not hit me.”
However, although Kim Jong Il obtains nuclear weapons with decades of illusions, they are useless. North Korean nuclear is not good enough for negations, “nuclear deterrence”, or power display. I only regret the fact that Kim Jong Il still does not realize it. In the result, it will attempt nuclear testing a few times and bring its own isolation and collapse of the regime. That is the lonely end of a “tyranny.”
