During his recent trip to Washington, South Korean President Lee Myung Bak apparently suggested to his counterpart President Obama that the U.S., South Korea, Japan, China and Russia convene so-called “Five-Party Talks” to coordinate policy and pressurize North Korea.
In the midst of a situation where North Korea is regularly pursuing belligerent and destabilizing actions, President Lee believes the five nations must raise their voices for the complete abandonment of North Korean nuclear weapons.
In order for Resolution 1874 sanctions against the North to produce effective results, Russian and Chinese participation is required, and this, according to some experts, needs to be actively pursued through a Five-Party Talks framework.
Naturally, the Talks were put forward as taking place under the umbrella of the Six-Party Talks framework.
The U.S., while agreeing with the principle of Five-Party Talks and the necessity of the goals that they would pursue, has not given a clear opinion on whether or not to actually hold them. In the only high level comment thus far, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates expressed agreement with the role of such Talks, while independent research institution the Center for New American Security (CNAS) emphasized in a recent report that the Five-Party Talks could provide “an essential forum” which would ensure that “greater regional stability and cooperation will continue to exist in Northeast Asia.” Second, “this forum will signal clearly that American strategy will not be held captive to North Korean gamesmanship,” the report claimed.
Moon Tae Young, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, stated in a general briefing on the 18th, “Both the U.S. and South Korea, against the backdrop of the close cooperation achieved at the U.S.-South Korea Summit, are continually working towards effective measures for the North’s irreversible abandonment of its nuclear weapons, in this case through Five-Party Talks. China and Russia are also discussing their participation in the Talks.”
Until now, China and Russia have maintained the position of avoiding the extreme isolation of the North. The two countries also held bilateral talks within a day of President Lee’s proposal, and chose to issue a joint statement urging the North’s return to the Six-Party Talks.
It is no surprise that China, which has been chairing the Six-Party Talks, does not welcome the Five-Party Talks concept, which would very possibly be led by the U.S. and/or South Korea.
In addition, although China approved UN Security Council Resolution 1874 after the North’s nuclear test, it seems to want to avoid damaging its relations with the country any further.
Choi Chun Heum, a Senior Researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, commented, “The Five-Party Talks excludes North Korea, so it will be difficult for China to officially declare them its preference. But if the Five-Party Talks were to be to induce the North to return to the Six-Party Talks, then China would approve.”
The former Bush administration also considered a Five-Party Talks framework, but it was abandoned due to Chinese opposition. During the Clinton era, Four-Party Talks were pursued alongside U.S.-DPRK bilateral talks. But the Talks, which included the U.S., South Korea, China and North Korea, differed in character from Five-Party Talks, which explicitly exclude North Korea.
Consequently, if the objective of the Five-Party Talks is to hold an inclusive discussion on how to restore North Korea to the Six-Party Talks framework, then China could possibly participate, but if it is a further negotiating forum for imposing sanctions on the North, then experts note that the possibility of Chinese opposition is very high.
Professor Shin Sang Jin of Kwangwoon University gave this analysis, “Through the Six-Party Talks, China has strengthened its influence in the Northeast Asian region. Thus, it will be difficult for them to support the Five-Party Talks because the annulment of the Six-Party Talks would reduce China’s role and its competitive edge against U.S. influence.”
Professor Shin further emphasized, “China will also oppose the Talks based on the possibility that it might worsen North Korea’s isolation from the international community and provoke an abnormal response from the North.”
Jeon Jae Sung, a Professor at Seoul National University, also predicted, “If a vision which goes beyond cooperation on sanctions does not surface, China will certainly think twice about participating in these Talks.”
