[imText1]On the 7th, a spokesperson from the Chinese Foreign Ministry drew the world’s attention by indicating that the date of Kim Jong Il’s visit to China was near.
Until now, Kim Jong Il had never announced his visits to China and Russia in advance. He had always suddenly dropped in on the countries without prior notices and it was on return from the visits that they were publicized. His approach of visiting other countries is completely different from ones of other presidents, in that other presidents announce their visit dates in advance.
‘The second Yeungchun explosion incident can not be excluded’
From the end of last month, Kim Jong Il has been rumored to have visited China. Hence, some people predict that because his visit plan was reported to the press in advance, he has not yet taken action. Around September 5, some press releases reported that his special train was spotted in Shinuiju through a satellite and so it was moved to another location.
Others infer that because big incidents such as the Yeungchun explosion in 2004 could happen again around the areas of Shinuiju and North Pyongyang province, so he has not started a move rather hesitant to cross the Yalu river.
Whatever the reason, this time his visit has been known in advance.
If Kim Jong Il visits China, he is likely to choose the ‘normal’ railroad, from Shinuiju to Dandong-Seunyang-Bejing. However, like his last visit in January, he is likely to head for Guangzhou trying to avert the world to other matters such as reformation and liberalization. At that time he showed a gesture as if he was interested in reformation and liberalization.
However, the dilemma that he and his guards have is that his ‘normal’ route, Shinuiju to Dandong, has already been known to the world as his favorite railroad. Two defectors who were guards for Kim Jong Il in the past said that it has been 10 years since Kim Jong Il has paid this kind of special attention. Occasionally, Kim Jong Il used a normal car to move for other local areas.
Though his favorite route is Shinuiju to Dandong, it is not the only way to China. There are other routes such as crossing the Yalu river.
DailyNK checked out all the possible ways for Kim Jong Il to travel to China.
1. In the case of using trains
Among his transportation vehicles, he is most likely to choose his special train. It is bulletproofed and has a good cooperative system with Chinese guards.
He is highly likely to use the Shinuiju to Dandong railroad that is the right route for his special train. Yet, it is possible to choose Manpo to Jian or Namyang to Tumen railroads.
① Shiuinu to Dandong railroad
Until now, Kim Jong Il has used the Shinuiju to Dandong railroad. It is most likely because the railroad is well-equipped and is in close proximity to Beijing.
The railroad falls under No.3 guard.
No.1 guard is under the control of the Chinese and N. Korean frontier district guards. When Kim Jong Il passed the Chosun-China ‘Goodwill Bridge’ to visit China last January, the two countries dispatched their soldiers around the bridge and stationed some small warships around the Yalu river.
No.2 guard is under the control of agents from the National Security Agency and Chinese Security Agency, who are usually dressed informally and patrol the area of Chosun-China ‘Goodwill Bridge’ on the side of Dandong. No.3 guard is under the control of Chinese police officers who prevent all common people from passing over the Yalu River Park and Dandong station.
During the 6.25 War period, Chinese soldiers were dispatched to North Korea via the Dandong to Shinuiju railroad. The Dandong to Shinuiju railroad is a symbol of the blood alliance between the two countries. Maybe he has often used the railroad because of such ‘political reasons’.
② Manpo to Jian railroad
It is likely he will use the Manpo to Jian railroad. Yet now the Pyongyang to Manpo railroad is very old and its railroad ties have eroded so that it is almost impossible for Kim Jong Il’s special train to pass. In addition, there is no record stating that he used this railroad.
③ Namyang to Tomen railroad
The Namyang to Tomen railroad links areas of the North Korean frontier to China. Kim Jong Il would be able to use this railroad, while attracting the world’s attention to the Shinuiju to Dandong railroad because Namyang station is on a small mountain. However, because Namyang station is on a small mountain, his special train would not be able to pass on it.
In addition, it takes one day to go from Tomen to Beijing. This means that his insecure exposure time to the world would be longer. Moreover, it is not likely that the Yangduk to Gowon railroad is rebuilt, which is necessary to pass to go from Pyongyang to Namyang.
2. In the case of using a car
It is likely he will travel by car, if not by train. If using a car, he is likely to choose the route from the Yalu river to Shinuiju-Dandong, to Haesan-Changbai, or to Namyang-Tomen. Yet the ways except Shinuiju-Dandong are very insecure.
Haesan-Changbai, or Namyang-Tomen roads are less likely to be used because of bad road conditions in both North Korea and China. At all times whenever he travels by car, Kim Jong Il will be able to make the most of the aspect, preventing his car from being told. Yet, he had never used the way to visit China and Russia before.
In addition, Kim Jong Il is less likely to use a car in that he has his exclusively used car as well as his special train.
3.In the case of using a special plane
He can fly to China by special train. It is the most time-efficient way, because it takes less than 1 hour to arrive at Beijing.
However, Kim Jong Il has never used a special plane except when he visited Indonesia with his father Kim Il Sung, in 1965.
Although in 1957, 1959 and 1961 he had ever flied to Russia with Kim Il Sung, his airplanes had never been open to the world. He rarely used a special plane.
In August 2001 he traveled to Russia for about 20 days, the length of 18,000km, by train which incited a rumor that he must have an allergy to airplanes.
Absolutely, he is likely to use a special plane in that he has his exclusively used special plane and his special train is getting attention.
[imText2]4.In the case of using a motorboat
There is even a slight chance that Kim Jong Il will use a motorboat. If using a motorboat, he has to cross the Yalu river and passing his Changsung villa to Gwandien, China.
He can use an excursion ship, yet he is more likely to use a motorboat because the motorboat does not need a guard strategy like the ‘007 Strategy’. Fujimoto Kenji who was a cook of Kim Jong Il stated that he had a motorboat match with Kim Jong Il in the Chnagsung villa. Kim Jong Il likes motorboats.
However, if he uses this approach, it is likely that he becomes a laughingstock.
Obviously, most likely to travel by train
Given all conditions, he is most likely to travel by special train. His special train is specially bulletproofed and equipped with 82mm trench mortars, launching tubes and large caliber machine guns.
His special train (so-called ‘Baekdae train’) consists of three compartment trains. Its front train functions detecting land mines and it advances ahead of other trains at 3 to 5 hours intervals.
It has not been known in which one Kim Jong Il sits down among the three trains. Because of this factor, it is least likely that he gets attacked. The special train has 50 guards and on the railroad for the special train guards are posted at 100m intervals. Because the guards defend Kim Jong Il and his special train in conclusion, the special train is most safe.
