[imText1]President Roh Moo Hyun, in his recent speech at the Military Academy graduation ceremony on March 22, said, “Northeast Asia’s balance of power will be changed according to the decisions we make in the future.”
“We will criticize what needs to be criticized and cooperate what needs to be cooperated, and we will fulfill all of our rights and responsibilities as a sovereign state,” President Roh stated.
This day’s speech is interpreted to have implicit significance, not just only “theoretical” meaning. “South Korea’s role as a major pillar in Northeast Asia among the three pillars of the “ROK-US-Japan Trilateral Alliance,” was forged during the Cold War,” explained one of the government officials. “We cannot always be caged in that set of boundaries.”
President Roh’s Speech Perhaps Strengthen the “Northeast Asia Triangle Alliance
The real significance of the speech seems difficult to assert. However, if the word “change” means transformation of the current Northeast Asia’s political environment, where the (Southern) ROK-US-Japan triangle and (Northern) DPRK-China-Russia triangle are confronting each other, then the significance of the president’s speech is certainly considerable. The significance is even greater if the speech implies the belief that the change in the balance of power around the Korean peninsula must start from South Korea’s liberation from the ROK-US-Japan trilateral alliance.
Let’s simplify the problem and get closer to the essence of it
Changing the composition of the confrontation between the ROK-US-Japan triangle and the DPRK-China-Russia triangle is an important matter for peace and security of the Korean peninsula, and also a necessary one. The problem, however, is which triangle will strengthen after to the change.
It seems least likely that seeking a balance of power free from the Southern triangle means weakening the Southern trilateral alliance. However, if South Korea becomes free from the ROK-US-Japan alliance, there is a possibility that the Southern triangle will weaken, which will make the Northern triangle relatively stronger and result in changing the balance of power in the Northeast Asia.
Balance of Power Possible When Kim Jong Il Regime is Replaced
One of the most important tasks for South Korea to address in the 21st century, following the Cold War, is the reunification of the Korean peninsula. In order to achieve reunification, there are many problems to be solved in prior, but the most important and pressing one is change in North Korea. The most “honest” way for North Korea’s change, or reformation and opening up, is by replacing the Kim Jong Il regime with a democratic government.
This is the reason why North Korean democratization must be a premier precondition for the Korean reunification. Change in the balance of power around the Korean peninsula must harmonize with South Korean national interests and strategic goals, such as democratic reformation in North Korea and the Korean reunification.
The Roh Moo Hyun administration must seek for ways that will substantially contribute to North Korean democratization, reunification, and the peace and prosperity of Northeast Asia instead of focusing on the “right and responsibility of as a sovereign state” and other conceptual formalities.
At this point, the foreign policy that the South Korean government must pursue is not becoming independent of the Southern trilateral alliance, but loosening China and Russia from the Northern alliance.
