President of the Committee for Democratization of North Korea Hwang Jang Yop, former Secretary of the International Department of the Worker’s Party, believes that the post-Kim Jong Il North Korea will be dominated not by military authorities but by the Party.
Assemblyman Kim Dong Sung, from the Grand National Party, reported on Tuesday that Hwang said earlier this month at a meeting with him that “The possibility of the military authorities coming to power is very low because Kim Jong Il has been managing and controlling them and their power balance closely for a long time.”
Hwang said that Kim Jong Il has especially been controlling all military figures above Brigade Commander level and they don’t have any discontent with Kim Jong Il.
However, major experts on North Korea predict that a collective leadership system by the military authorities is likely in the post-Kim Jong Il period.
Regarding the succession issue, Hwang explained that “Kim Jong Nam can possibly be selected as the successor to Kim Jong Il, because the Chinese administration has been connected with him, he is the eldest son of Kim Jong Il and is backed by Jang Sung Taek, one of the core elite among the North Korean authorities.”
Jang Sung Taek has been closely assisting Kim Jong Il for more than thirty years as the Director of the Ministry of Administration of the Workers’ Party, although he was demoted for a few years recently. After his return to his position in October of last year, he was revived as the second ranking figure in the North Korean authorities.
Expert analysis generally suggests that Director Jang and Kim Kyung Hee, the Director of the Ministry of Light Industry and Kim Jong Il’s younger sister, support Jong Nam.
Finally, Hwang firmly believes that “When Kim Jong Il dies, there is no possibility that a civil war will occur or anarchy will prevail in North Korea. This is because the close associates of Kim Jong Il have already been stably established as if they are all in the same boat.”
