With the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) on the cusp of reopening, hopes are rising that inter-Korean relations could see substantive improvement. Working-level talks to reopen the Mt. Geumgang tourist resort appear to be on the horizon, scheduled for the days after an upcoming round of separated family reunions.
North Korea’s changed approach, notably in agreeing to the reopening of the KIC on South Korean terms, is being viewed as a positive signal for the future. Previously hot-button issues related to passage, communications and customs control in the complex have been ironed out. North Korea even ceded to the use of smartphones and Internet in the zone, and significant progress has been made in terms of combined attempts to attract foreign investment.
In short, North Korea decided to yield to the demands of the South Korean government. This was vastly different from previous meetings during 2013, wherein problems arose over a litany of issues: schedules, location, and even a perceived mismatch in rank of official delegations.
Further evidence for the claim that relations are thawing is that North Korea did not fly into a rage when South Korean suggested deferring discussion on the reopening of Mt. Geumgang until after the separated family reunions, which take place between September 25th and 30th. This is also in stark contrast to previous behavior, and hints that Mt. Geumgang way indeed go back into operation as an inter-Korean tourist zone.
For the administration of President Park Geun Hye, the stable management of inter-Korean relations is imperative if it is to realize the North Korea policy platform of “trust-building.” This key election pledge is inspiring a more flexible approach from the South.
One anonymous North Korea expert told the Daily NK yesterday, “Public support for the Park administration’s North Korea policy recently passed 60%. We can expect this number to grow thanks to the agreement to reopen the KIC. Based on this approval rating, the government may push forward with an even more assertive North Korea policy.”
“It will not be as easy to come to an agreement on reopening Mt. Geumgang as it was with the KIC,” the expert warned. “But should the current climate persist then it will be possible. That is, if South Korea remains flexible and North Korea comes up with conditions that are acceptable to the South Korean people. The North wants to earn foreign currency.”
Yet several unresolved issues remain. South Korea continues to demand an investigation into the events surrounding the fatal shooting of tourist Park Wang Ja at Mt. Geumgang in the summer of 2008. Recurrence prevention and guarantees of personal safety will need to be addressed. Without these guarantees, the North-South relationship could easily cool once more.
Yoo Dong Yeol, a senior researcher with the Police Science Institute believes, “North Korea pressured the newly established Park Geun Hye administration with the Kaesong card to try and ‘tame’ it. There may be results in the short term with the restart, but there is the possibility that North Korea could play the Kaesong card again.”
A researcher with the Korea Institute for National Unification, Park Hyung Jung added, “Since questions of whether or not there are talks on Kaesong tourism or the Six-Party Talks reopen can also have an effect, there will probably be a lot of uncertainty in North-South relations in the second half of this year.”
Park noted that if talks on Mt. Geumgang tourism were to end in failure due to divergent stances from Seoul and Pyongyang, North Korea may make the strategic decision to step tensions back up.
