The final collapse of the regime of Colonel Muammar Qadhafi on the streets of Sirte last night has reignited discussion of how ongoing events in the Middle East will be seen in Pyongyang.
The region is now characterized by a range of case studies for Pyongyang to pore over, from the relatively peaceful fall of the Tunisian and Egyptian regimes to suppression in Bahrain with Saudi assistance, the violent fall of Qadhafi in the face of French and British air barrages, and ongoing deadly clashes between civilians and the security forces in both Yemen and Syria.
However, despite the uncertainty, Seo Jeong Min of Hanguk University of Foreign Studies was bullish in conversation with The Daily NK this morning, saying, “The Middle East democratization movement was at a stalemate, but the death of Gaddafi will reignite it. The longest-serving dictator has fallen, becoming a chance for the Middle East democratization wave to take fresh confidence.”
“In Syria and Yemen, the popular uprisings are moving slowly and becoming longer term issues. (However, the Libya case) is a chance for them to realize that they can mobilize militarily to add to simple, peaceful demonstrations,” he added.
Not only that; Professor Seo says the movements are now showing other dictatorial regimes that might is not all they need if they want to stay in power.
“Popular uprisings emerging through ’new media’ like SNS show that new governments can be formed on the strength of the people,” he pointed out. “It also showed that dictatorship regimes cannot merely mobilize force to maintain their power as they did in the past.”
However, to the degree that the events in Sirte will have made the regime in Pyongyang uncomfortable, they will also have reconfirmed what Pyongyang already advocates in its propaganda; that nuclear weapons are a major key to the regime’s future.
According to Professor Cho Young Gi of Korea University, the future looks bleak, “This will have lent conviction to the judgment that only the attaining of ‘nuclear armed state’ status will keep them alive. They will strengthen propaganda that Qadhafi’s end was the miserable result of a pro-western strategy, and block any weakening of internal controls.”
Choi Yong Hwan of Gyeonggi Research Institute agreed, adding, “It is an omen that nuclear negotiations will get even more difficult. The North Koreans in power will take it that Qadhafi’s death occurred because he gave up his nuclear weapons.”
