[imText1]North Korean who is already experiencing the bitterness of winter is also threatened with a food crisis worse than ever before. In particular, the flood from the previous summer resulted in the lowest records of agricultural output in North Korea since the `90βs.
It seems that this winter will be the most severe winter faced by North Korea since the mid-90βs, in addition to foreign aid having been discontinued as a result of the missile launch and nuclear experiment
Until now, whenever autumn arrived, the cost of food would generally decline. In retrospect, citizens would be challenged with the cold weather as the cost of coal and firewood for heating would rise dramatically. However this winter, not only is firewood still lacking, but rather the cost of food has also increased which has led to North Korean citizens being faced with a far worse situation than before.
How serious is North Koreaβs food crisis?
In general, North Koreaβs annual agricultural production is 6.5 million tons (2,130kcal a person per day) consisting of barley, corn and potato. Alternatively, international organizations suggest that the actual figure is 5.2mn tons (1,600kcal a person per day).
Last year, North Koreaβs own food output was considered abundant and this was merely 4.5mn tons, 1.5mn~2mn tons below the ideal amount. Of this figure, roughly 1mn ton of North Koreaβs deficient food output was supplied every year by South Korea 500,000 tons, China 200,000~300,000 tons and 200,000 tons by the World Food Program.
However, following North Koreaβs missile launch and nuclear experiments, international aid has decreased dramatically.
After the missile launch, South Korea basically reserved its food aid to North Korea and only sent 90,000 tons of rice as flood assistance. Also in the first half of the year, China only sent 100,000 tons of grains.
According to the World Food Plan’s decision to suspend North Koreaβs humanitarian aid, the amount of food aid will undoubtedly diminish since in the second half of this year only 150,000 tons of assistance will be sent over a period of 2 years.
Furthermore, though this yearβs summer harvest of barley, wheat and potato was the norm, the autumn harvest of crops such as rice and corn is forecasted to be less than last year as a result of the flood and lack of assistance. International organizations estimate that food production decreased by 100,000 tons as a result of the flood which occurred this summer and that additional agricultural losses were made.
In the end, if the international communityβs aid continues to decrease, it is predicted that North Koreaβs food output will be lacking by 600,000~700,000 tons.
North Koreaβs nuke experiment, a βtough winterβ gift for the citizens
Following North Koreaβs nuke experiment declaration, beginning with Korea and China, countries throughout the world decreased their food assistance and consequently in October some areas of Jangmadang (markets) experienced a sudden surge in the cost of rice even up to 1,500won per kilo.
Though the cost of rice seems to be stabilized at present, Nov 20th, if foreign aid is stopped, there are concerns that a situation similar to the βMarch of Tribulationβ in the mid-90βs may occur again.
In addition, officials who work at customs who are the first to receive foreign information as well as rich citizens have already stocked up on rice.
In the present condition, even if North Korean citizens are able to bypass the winter, when spring comes they will be faced with a βyellow spring season.β (a phenomenon where the world looks yellow due to malnutrition) If this occurs, North Koreans will not even have enough strength for endurance.
However, even now, day and night North Korean authorities argue that βThe nuclear experiment will remain the greatest victory in our nationβs 5,000 year old history.β
The major causes to North Koreaβs severe famine of the 90βs were the Kim Jong Il regimes economic persistence not to change Military First Policy and the mass agricultural mobilization. This was coupled with a flood. Because the North Korean regime made a rash decision to gamble with nukes, citizens now have to prepare for another βtough winter.β
Could another βmass starvationβ like the 90βs occur?
Jaap Timmer, Head of Delegation in DPRK Red Cross Society in Pyongyang said in an interview with Agence-France Presse on the 21st, βNorth Koreaβs lack of food and fuel is currently boarding the danger markerβ and expressed concerns that βThis year the North Korean citizens will be faced with a harsh winter.β
A U.S. human rights activist Timothy Peters said in a telephone conversation with Radio Free Asia (RFA) βA situation is occurring where the international community is forfeiting its aid to the North Korean peopleβ and warned βRecently North Koreaβs humanitarian aid has been on the decline which means that a situation similar to the 90βs could occur, where the famine killed hundreds of thousands of people.β
However, even if North Koreaβs food situation does deteriorate like the 90βs, North Korean analysts argue that mass starvation will not occur.
During the food crisis of the 90βs, the citizens who depended solely on the government became helpless and died of starvation the moment the food distribution system broke down. However, now the nationβs economy is on the verge of collapse and North Korean citizens have learned the ways to survive on their own.
In most of the districts excluding Pyongyang, people either trade or maintain their lifestyle by cultivating their own land. People use a variety of methods to make money such as gathering medicinal herbs and growing domestic animals for profit. It is likely that a great number of people also receive help from their family in South Korea and China.
Today, all citizens are aware of the fact that the international community has stopped aid because of rash decisions and risky acts by the government such as the missile launch and nuke experiment. Hence, as the food crisis becomes more severe, it seems that only feelings of resentment towards the government will rise.
