[imText1]Kim Jong Il has been keeping quiet.
Now, over one month after the North Korean missile conflict, the odds are against North Korea in almost every aspect. The greatest shock was that China voted in favor of a U.N. Security Council resolution against N.Korea.
China is an economic and diplomatic supporter for N. Korea, yet it supported the resolution to impose sanctions on N. Korea. If the Kim Jong Il regime displays aggressive behavior again, it will face serious opposition from the Chinese. The brinkmanship that was a series of missile launches this time has incited the hard-line of the U.S., and influenced China and Korea in the cessation of aid to the North.
Now, Kim Jong Il looking for a way to leverage China, without continuing to push it further away. However, each potential method of imposing pressure would lead to separate reactions from China. Strong measures, such as nuclear threats, are so risky that N.Korea would have to be ready to completely break off the alliance with China. On the other hand, the return to the six-party talks is likely to damage the authority of Kim Jong Il domestically, because the talks have not been beneficial to the North in the past.
The most effective card for Kim Jong Il to play may be nuclear. Simply increasing the amount of plutonium at the Youngbyun 5MW nuclear reactor would not likely be seen as a major threat to neighboring countries.
Nuclear threats will be Kim Jong Il’s last resort. If necessary, he will continue to pressure the US and the international community with nuclear missile tests.
If North Korea tries to experiment with nuclear weapons, China will abandon N.Korea
It now looks as though the Bush administration will surrender to North Korean threats. However, if North Korea continues testing of nuclear weapons, the U.S. will begin to impose pressure to change the Kim Jong Il regime in earnest, and China will likely decide to abandon North Korea.
Without the removal of the sanctions, Kim Jong Il will hesitate to return to the six-party talks, as it would look as if the North had been forced into the talks by the US. Kim Jong Il, who holds his absolute authority in the highest regard, will be unable to return to the six-party talks without some concessions from the US.
The most realistic option for the North would be to simply “resist” until the Bush administration ends. If a Democrat enters the White House, Kim Jong Il will once again resort to pressure through nuclear threats. During that time, he can begin to build the Taechun 50MW nuclear reactor, equip it with nuclear weapons production, and greatly enhance North Korean power.
During the Clinton administration, Kim Jong Il had gained concessions from the US, such as the lifting of economic sanctions, improvment of foreign relations, and offers of energy aid, through repeated nuclear threats.
Resisting strategy will backfire
Although Kim Jong Il resists, the Bush administration has not left North Korea alone. President Bush will hold office for another two and half years. It is expected that throughout that time the economic sanctions against N.Korea will continue.
Plus, there are likely to be consequences of resisting for North Korea. The shortage of capital and foreign currency could potentially lead to a loss of authority for Kim Jong Il.
Even if the Democrats gain office in 2008, risks for North Korea will remain. The Democrats have recently urged the Bush administration to talk directly with N.Korea and to visit Pyongyang. After the North’s launch of missiles, Hilary Clinton, a strong Democratic candidate, urged the US to hold bilateral talks with N.Korea.
This is another way of saying that they US will attempt to use diplomacy first in dealing with North Korea, but will resort to other means, if necessary.
William Perry, former secretary of Defense and a member of the Democratic party, and Senator John Kerry, urged the US to take retaliatory actions after N.Korea launched the missiles. Judging from these reactions, it is likely that in the future, the Democrats will also be less inclined to simply appease Kim Jong Il.
Now, the best way for the Kim Jong Il regime to survive is return to the six-party talks. Afterwards, Kim Jong Il should follow the requirements of the 9.19 Joint Statement, get aid from the international community, and progress towards reform and liberalization.
If Kim Jong Il avoids any further threats to the international community, there will be no “emergency exit” for him. In addition, if he takes any aggressive actions, such as the invasion of South Korea, the Roh administration will lose face, and will be forced to cease cooperative actions.
If Kim Jong Il refuses return to the six-party talks, he should “check out his followers”.
