[imText1]The majority of experts foresee that the result of the Congress election would not strongly influence the policies of the Bush administration towards N. Korea, though Democrats are in capture of control of the House and Senate.
However, they also expect the approach to N. Korea to be changed if Democrats urge engagement policies in N. Korea such as U.S-N. Korea bilateral talks.
Prof. Kim Sung Han of IFANS foresaw that, “Democrats are more firm of making N. Korea give up its nuclear weapons”, and thus “they would find out and review alternatives for N. Korean nuclear problem, yet their fundamental policy direction would be not changed”.
He stated that, “If Democrats judge that the financial sanctions and pressures on N. Korea human rights problems make just lack the concentration on solving the nuclear problem, they would demand the reexamination on the policies” and “they are likely to focus on only the nuclear problem”.
He also said that, “Such changes do not show the fundamental changes towards N. Korea and just shift from the Republican approaches to the Democratic ones” and “they are likely to use different methods rather than stick to the six-party talks”.
At the same time, he added that, “The Democrats favor appeasement policies such as bilateral talks, yet if N. Korea does not accept their policies, they would take stronger stance”.
Dr. Kim Tae Woo of Korea Institute for the Defense Analysis (KIDA) expected that, “The U.S tactics towards N. Korea could be somewhat changed, yet its strategy would not be altered”.
Dr. Kim explained that, “N. Korea deceived Democrats when they were the party in power” and “Because of it, the Democrats will continue to pursue the same policies as those of the Republicans”.
Regarding the Korea-U.S relationship, he revealed that, “It is likely that the voice for the operational control negotiation can rise if Minister Donald Henry Rumsfeld is replaced”.
Prof. Kim Tae Hyo of SungKyunGwan University said that, “Since the Bush administration has used Stick and Carrot strategy like talks and pressures on N. Korea, it is unlikely that considerable alternations in its policies could occur”.
Prof. Kim said that, “The nuclear problem was not a matter of the talk style”, and “the U.S responses depend on what attitude N. Korea takes”.
