[imText1]It is June which people anticipated that a crisis might be surged in Korean peninsula because of North Korea nuclear.
What is going on in Korean peninsula at this moment? South Korea increased interchange and cooperation with North Korea as if the crisis in June is already over.
Even though North Korea reduced personnel for the talk which is scheduled on 1st of June, 6.15 joint events and the ministerial talk is followed as scheduled.
‘Crisis in June’ was occurred because of around country’s lack of patient and the possibility of nuclear test by North Korea, but not any additional treatment was come out yet.
‘Kyodo News’, a Japanese newspaper, reported on 2nd of June that “Christopher R. Hill, Assistant Secretary of State, and Sasae Kenichiro, the chief of Foreign Affairs Ministry, evaluated that nuclear test by North Korea will not be happened easily.”
Therefore, the crisis can be solved by a dialogue with North Korea. Direct dialogue between North Korea-US and South Korea-North Korea are in progress and South Korea-US summit talk which will be really crucial for nuclear crisis in North Korea is scheduled on 11th of June.
The inside circumstance, however, is totally different as the outward.
Around countries are trying to bring North Korea to 6 nation talk. However, North Korea still takes a firm attitude. ‘Crisis in June’ is settled down in a way, but Korean peninsula is still making an uncertain signal.
When we take into consideration about interchange between two Koreas these days, North Korea will not make additional threats which can aggravate the situation. North Korea will get additional fertilizers and food supports from South Korea until the ministerial talk is over. North Korea will use ‘national cooperation’ as a part of tactic to press the US.
North Korea decided to strengthen ‘national cooperation for peaceful unification’ in June
South Korea-the US summit conference shall be the decisive factor.
There is a huge difference between Washington and Seoul about the matters related to South Korea-the US alliance. Many people think that it is an important summit meeting because something is going on in the alliance at this moment.
Some people are anticipating that a deal which giving ‘alliance’ and taking ‘North Korea nuclear’ between South Korea and the US shall be achieved in the summit. It means South Korea is focusing on recovering alliance with the US and the both countries might make a compromise temporarily for North Korea nuclear.
The problem is that there is a huge difference between South Korea and the US about dealing with North Korea nuclear. If the both parties can not overcome the difference about the solution for North Korea nuclear in the summit, North Korea shall use ‘national cooperation’ and then North Korea might conduct a nuclear gamble taking South Korea and Japan as hostage.
North Korea use the ministerial talk to protect it against the US
There is significance in the ministerial talk which is held as of 21st of June in Seoul. North Korea might make a signal related to returning to the six party talk. In other words, North Korea might act as if it gives a power to South Korea, and it will get economic supports from South Korea.
A scenario which we can anticipate easily is that two Koreas might make a principle-level mutual agreement such as ‘two Korea will work together to return to the six party talk’. If so, South Korea can achieve political outcome and North Korea can get the actual profit and strengthen ‘national cooperation’. In the end, there is a high possibility that North Korea would use South Korea as a shield against the US.
‘Crisis in June’ shows signs of changing to ‘Great Change’. In Washington conference for South Korea-the US alliance which was held last month, US officials emphasized that South Korea’s position is really important to solve North Korea nuclear.
Some experts point out that if South Korea do not abandon optimistic view about North Korea nuclear and do not access to North Korea nuclear with realistic attitude, North Korea shall aggravate the situation using South Korea as a shield.
Huh Mun Young, the chief researcher of Korea Institute for National Unification, said that “it is when we need to think that the situation in Korean peninsula is in crisis” and added that “if South Korea and the US make a firm cooperation through the summit, it would be a turning point to solve North Korea nuclear, or a dramatic aggravation shall be expected.”
