Yesterday, Kim Jong Eun’s “special envoy” Choi Ryong Hae informed his interlocutors in Beijing that North Korea “seeks dialogue with related countries.” Choi, a close confidant of the North Korean leader and the head of the Chosun People’s Army General Political Department, did not go into detail, but his words have led to speculation about whether this marks a shift in North Korea’s attitude to its external relations, or merely a placatory gesture to appease the Chinese government.
Choi did not refer directly to “denuclearization” or a “return to the Six-Party Talks” in his comments, which were made in conversation with Liu Yunshan, a member of the Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo Standing Committee. However, denuclearization is one goal that unifies China, the United States and South Korea, as well as the two other Six-Party Talks participant nations, Japan and Russia; therefore, North Korea’s stated desire for “dialogue” cannot be separated from the denuclearization issue.
Primarily because the outside world does not know what diplomatic message Kim Jong Eun gave Choi Ryong Hae before dispatching him to Beijing, it is impossible to know at this stage what Choi really meant. It is possible that he was indicating a North Korean willingness to return to the Six-Party Talks, but having loudly rejected the denuclearization forum in recent years, this is unlikely.
As Supreme People’s Assembly Standing Committee chair Kim Young Nam noted in July 2009, “The United States and their allies do not respect Chosun’s sovereignty, and so the Six-Party Talks are finished permanently.” More recently, the North Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared in January this year, “Even if there is dialogue on guaranteeing the peace and security of the Chosun Peninsula region, there will be no discussion of denuclearization.”
In any case, the United States and South Korea remain wed to the need for concrete North Korean action before they will return to the negotiating table. In particular, the U.S. has foresworn “talks for talks sake” no less vociferously than North Korea has foresworn denuclearization itself.
Partly as a result of these facts, many in conservative Seoul circles say Choi’s comments were more likely to be a reference to North Korea’s desire for disarmament talks and/or dialogue in pursuit of a peace treaty to replace the Korean War armistice agreement. This makes much more sense: North Korea’s state media reiterates daily the fact that the country is now a bona fide nuclear power, a claim that has also been written into the state constitution. Equally, North Korea’s recent shift from the “military-first political line” to the “byungjin line” of parallel nuclear and civilian economic development appears to render a return to any kind of denuclearization discussion almost impossible.
However, the Six-Party Talks lie on the path to this outcome. As Jung Young Tae, a senior researcher from Korea Institute for National Unification, told Daily NK earlier today, “[Choi’s comments about wanting dialogue] point toward the Six-Party Talks, but the probability of talks that lead to denuclearization actually taking place is not great.” He added, “Rather, [Choi’s comments] are because North Korea adjudges that the Six-Party Talks must open as a prerequisite for dialogue with the United States on a peace treaty.”
Therefore, “China’s stance is to just open the Six-Party Talks and have a dialogue, whereas South Korea and the U.S. have said they won’t engage in talks that lack sincerity, so we cannot rule out the possibility of a clash between South Korea, the United States and China,” he added.
