With today’s re-election of President Barack Obama comes the very high likelihood that existing North Korea policy will endure in the short term, especially with just a month to go before South Korea holds its own presidential election and mere days before Hu Jintao hands the reins of Chinese power to Xi Jinping.
After that, the presumption is that North Korea’s own attitude will be the key variable in deciding whether any benefit accrues to Pyongyang during Obama’s second term.
For a brief moment following President Obama’s first presidential election victory there were signs of positive movement in U.S.-North Korea relations, but a missile launch and subsequent nuclear test in 2009 forced Washington to take a hardline approach.
It was another two years before things began to improve once more, with periodic contacts between the two countries in 2011 leading to the conclusion of the ‘Leap Day Agreement’ on February 29th, 2012, just two months after the death of Kim Jong Il.
However, that lasted an even shorter time than most bilateral agreements between Washington and Pyongyang, with the launch of another long-range missile in commemoration of the April 15th ‘Day of the Sun’ (100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung) putting paid to Washington’s willingness to deliver a substantial amount of food aid under the deal.
According to Professor Yoo Ho Yeol, who spoke to Daily NK this morning, “The Obama administration has had experience (of dealing with North Korea). If North Korea does not show some kind of movement on the nuclear issue, then for the time being the current North Korea policy will be maintained.”
Another policy institute researcher, speaking anonymously, agreed, saying, “The Obama first term was rooted in strategic patience to try and confirm North Korea’s real intention. North Korea conducted a nuclear test and missile launch, but got nothing out of it. There’s not going to be any fundamental change in the second term.”
The problem is that while the United States wants to watch and wait, and will certainly not publicly approach North Korea as it did four years ago, North Korea sees ownership of its nuclear deterrent as key to its ongoing existence as a state, and has stated time and again that the United States must change its “hostile policy” first if there is to be any hope of denuclearization.
As a result of this impasse, it is hard to see where a mood of dialogue can come from in the near future, the two experts note.
Professor Yoo explained, “The Obama administration will emphasize denuclearization and the unacceptability of armed provocations,” while the anonymous policy institute researcher added, “What kind of placatory chess move North Korea makes next is crucial. They know they cannot just cut off relations like they did in Obama’s first term.”
Against the backdrop of understandable skepticism within the Obama administration, the other major unknown quantity at this point is South Korea. In particular, an Obama government would prefer the option of supporting and amplifying Seoul’s North Korea policy, but such an approach may prove increasingly uncomfortable if Democratic United Party candidate Moon Jae In, who does not prioritize denuclearization in the same way as the United States, wins on December 19th.
