[imText1]As China failed to pursuade North Korea to join the six party talks on the 13th, the UN Security Council is following its procedure to impose sanctions on North Korea.
On the 14th (Korean time), a compromise was reached between the US-Japanese draft and Chinese-Russian draft. Japanese media reported that the phrase identifying the North Korean missile launch as “a threat to international peace and security” would be dropped.
The US and Japan will attempt to work with China and Russia to reach a compromise on the resolution.
It would be a significant step for the international community to speak cohesively in the form of a resolution, regardless of the severity of the sacntions. China, however, has only agreed on the Presidential Statement despite the deviant actions of North Korea. Therefore, although it has been modified from its initial state, a coordinated resolution would be a clear statement from the international community.
A Security Council resolution is equivalent to the creation of comprehensive international restrictions enabling regulation of future North Korean missile launches, and illustrates widespread international cooperation. Launching mid-range and long-range missiles, as well as intercontinental ballistic missiles, will be recognized as a violation of international regulations.
Even if the resolution does not mention Article 7 of the UN Charter, it will still put a fair amount of political pressure on the member countries to take responsibility for supervision on the North Korean import and export of parts for use in missile development.
The resolution by China seems to insinuate that it would not let North Korea take their weapons development much further, and may be seen as a warning to the North that China is ready to support more severe sanctions if necessary. It may be a situation impossible for the North to avoid if they continue the missile tests.
North Korea: More Missiles Would Be A Burden
Based on the resolution, the US and Japan willl strenthen sanctions on North Korea.
As part of the sanctions imposed on the North, Japan will stop transferring money to North Korea, and freeze the possession of goods at Jochongryun. The US will strenthen the activities of PSI and impose stronger economic sanctions. They plan to urge North Korea to come back to the six party talks with continued pressure on the regime.
However, despite the power of the resolution, it is still a limited means to solving the problem of nuclear weapons development in North Korea. Specific sanctions do not exist, and it is hard to put effective pressure on North Korea while China and South Korea still intend to support North Korea economically.
It seems that this may be the outcome that Kim Jong Il expected as he launched the missiles on July 5th. North Korea has expressed its antipathy toward sanctions by the Security Council and has said, “When the nuclear is taken to the UN Security Council, we will consider it as an ultimatum”. However, when the US started to threaten the North with economic sanctions, virtutally disregarding the nucler issue in North Korea, the North decided to see who would bend first, and made no concessions.
Kim Jong Il might have thought that China and South Korea would oppose sanctioning the North. Even with sanctions imposed, however, it seems that he still thinks this is a good opportunity to display to the international community North Korean missile strength.
Kim Jong Il may have expected the international community to voice the opinion that the US needs to compromise with North Korea in order to resolve the nuclear issue, making bilateral negotiation with the US more likely.
Therefore, even after the resolution is in place, the missile issue will remain. Although it would be hard for North Korea to launch another right after the resolution is passed.
In the long term, it is hard to imagine that Kim Jong Il’s goals will be fulfilled. The US does not plan on removing the economic sanctions, and support for the Sunshine policy in South Korea is weakening among the people as well. China also has agreed on the resolution, illustrating the unpredictability of how much longer China will support North Korea.
This is why the resolution by the Security Council has gained such widespread attention.
