[imText1]It is forecasted that if North Korea launches a proof Taepodong No. 2 Missile, the security structure of North Asia inevitably will change, resulting in the acute strain of the world political situation.

Regarding the missile launch, experts predict that the missile launch will result in reinforced pressure from the U.S.-Japan alliance, and increased tensions between North Korea and the U.S., and North Korea and Japan. In addition, it has been stated that the military response of the U.S. would be difficult to speculate on, and that China will take a position in opposition to the U.S.-Japan alliance.

◆ The U.S.-Japan Alliance Deepened, Omni-Directional pressure on North Korea Reinforced

Dr. Kim Tae Woo, the head of the armament control research team at the Korean Institute for Defense Analysis (KIDA), predicted that, “North Korea will cross the river which it can not cross back over, and the pressure from the U.S. will intensify”, adding that, “The pressure comes from not only the reinforced alliance between the U.S. and Japan, but also the omni-directional security structure established through the U.S.- Japan joint missile defense system”.

He added that, “On the other hand, the U.S. will promote the Proliferation Security Initiative(PSI) of Weapons of Mass Destruction with Japan, and try to impose pressure through the U.N”.

Professor Wo Seung Ji of Kyung Hee University predicted that, “The U.S. will impose pressure on North Korea in conjunction with Japan”, and “the U.S. and Japan will put pressure on North Korea in their own ways, and the U.S. will induce a statement from the international society in order to criticize North Korea through The U.N. Security Council.

Professor Kim Young Ho of Sungshin Women’s University foretold that, “Unlike the Taepodong No. 2 Missile, this missile launch would be a bigger threat to the U.S. because it would occure after North Korea revealed its possession of nuclear weapons”, and “because Japan will consider it as a big threat, it will try to impose strict pressure on North Korea with the help of the U.S.”.

◆ “China, Keeps Watch on the U.S.-Japan Alliance and does not Take the Active Position”

Regarding the possibility that China would impose pressure on North Korea, experts predicted that China will take a fundamental position justified in principle. That is, it will just show some concern.

Professor Nam Sung Wuk of Korea University said that, “If the missile is launched, the international relations of North Korea will be aggravated especially with Japan and the U.S., as well as Korea”. He also said that, “However, China will still take the onlooker position and will not aggravate relations with North Korea”.

Professor Kim Tae Ho of Hanlim University explained that, “China will be shocked at North Korea’s missile launch. However, it will consider the U.S-Japan alliance more seriously than the missile launch”.

▲ Each Country’s Future Walk after the Missile Launch

Dr. Kim Tae Wo predicted that, “In the meantime, China has showed a double attitude towards the matter of North Korean nuclear weapons” and “It will take an opposing stance by considering international society, yet it will not take any action”.

Subsequently Dr. Kim analyzed the situation, stating that, “China knows that the ultimate purpose of the U.S.-Japan alliance is to check China”. He also mentioned that, “China recognizes that the nuclear weapon and the issile development of North Korea could induce the militarization of Japan, so that the U.S.-Japan alliance could be further strengthened”.

Professor Wo Seung Ji explained that, “It would be difficult for China to act in concert with the U.S.”, and “Because of the missile launch, North Korea-China relations could not easily be aggravated”.

◆ “U.S., not Easy to Take a Military Action”

Regarding the possibility of military action, experts generally agreed that it is risky, and would be difficult due to the opposition from China and Russia.

Professor Wo Seung Ji predicted that, “Because of the risks associated with military action, the U.S. would not easily go down that path”, and “Besides that, because of China and Russia, the U.S. will focus on using economic sanctions instead of military actions”.

Professor Nam Sung Wuk also said that, “Military actions would be discussed, yet they are unlikely to be carried out”, and “Because some in the Bush administration raise negative voices against policies towards North Korea by asserting ‘the U.S. should take a compromising attitude’, (any military action) is not realistic”.

Regarding the possible Russian response, Professor Kim Tae Ho said that, “Russia will show a similar attitude to that of China”, and “It is likely for Russia to take an arbitrator position after calculating its own benefits and costs”.