While concerns persist that North Korea will suffer further flood damage later this month as a result of heavy summer rain, having already been hit by Typhoon Meari at the end of last month, the effect of the rainy season on relations with South Korea is being closely watched.
Having seen how South Korea’s decision to provide flood assistance to North Korea last year led to the return of the crew of the Daeseung fishing vessel and a new round of family reunions, it is perfectly plausible that history will repeat itself this year.
The flood assistance provided by South Korea at that time was certainly well-timed to jumpstart relations between the two nations, after tensions over the Cheonan sinking and ‘May 24th Measure’ put almost all forms of political interaction on ice.
There appears to be a degree of need, with the damage caused by floods this year appearing to be at least as bad as in previous years. North Korea has been hit with heavy rain this week and the Korean Meteorological Administration forecasts heavy rain for Hwanghae and South Hamgyung Provinces.
According to Chosun Central News Agency (KCNA), several provinces including North Hwanghae and South Hamgyung were bombarded with 300mm of rain on the 13th. Chosun Central TV encouraged citizens to participate actively in reinforcements to redirect streams and prevent damage from landslides, including setting up river levees, doing road repairs and building drainage facilities.
The North Korean media also announced damage to lives and property following Typhoon Meari in late June, but the fact that it took them over two weeks to report the damage has left some observers convinced that the flood damage was being used as a means of obtaining aid from the international community.
Nevertheless, there are actually a significant number of reports coming from within North Korea saying that the country suffered genuinely serious damage as a result of the recent rains. One Pyongyang resident told The Daily NK on the 15th that poplar trees lining the street had blown over and damaged the road, something which TV footage later confirmed, and that many residents were inconvenienced by trams being unable to run.
The source said that “There were also a few houses destroyed by landslides and fallen trees. Crops suffered severe damage too.”
In the case of last year, the North Korean authorities requested emergency assistance from the UN following damage at the hands of Typhoon Kompasu, and two days later the South Korean government announced its intention to send aid and assistance via the Korean Red Cross.
Following this, aid totalling $9.4 million was trucked into to the Kaeseong region, as well as to Shinuiju via Dandong. However, in the last stages of the aid delivery program the Yeonpyeong Island attack occurred and all aid was suspended.
Relations between North and South Korea show no signs of a breakthrough so far this year, though, owing in part to a dispute over the ownership of facilities in Mt Geumgang. Nevertheless, Lee Myung Bak’s comment, “The uneasy situation caused by the Cheonan sinking and Yeonpyong Island incident cannot be allowed to go on forever,” indicates that the South Korean government is willing to restart dialogue with North Korea in theory.
In the event that North Korea decides to use the flood damage as the basis for a request for international aid, the South Korean government may well respond positively and cooperate with a combined international effort.
The government is aware that it would benefit from good relations with North Korea ahead of the Nuclear Security Summit in March next year, which is to be followed by the general election.
