[imText1]Kim Young Hwan, a member of the NKnet Research Committee, predicted today, “While North Korea is showing off its communism and carrying out the third generation succession; this will gradually turn into a crucial Achilles’ heel. This is one threat to the succession system.”
Kim was explaining the details of the process of the Kim Jong Eun succession system in a seminar, “Predictions on the North Korean Third Generation Succession and Our Policies on North Korea,” held by the Network for North Korean Democracy and Human Rights (NKnet) today.
According to Kim, “The possibility of the Kim Jong Eun succession system being established smoothly in North Korea is lower than ten percent.”
“It looks like several different kinds of unexpected problem such as Kim Jong Eun’s age and lack of experience may occur during the establishment of the succession system,” he went on.
He added, “There is around 20 to 30 percent possibility of their maintaining the foundations of the succession system at the same time as encountering serious problems and managing them; and around a 60 to 70 percent possibility of the succession system and the North Korean system itself changing fundamentally.”
Kim believes that this is because Kim Jong Eun lacks close associates who can treat him honestly. “During Kim Jong Il’s succession process, he had Kim Il and Choi Hyun, core former North Korean partisans-turned-cadres, and they openly advised him, considering him as a nephew. But, now, Kim Jong Eun has become more powerful than a crown prince in a dynasty, and there is no one who can give sincere advice with the exception of his aunt, Kim Kyung Hee.”
He added, “It is a fatal flaw for him that he is not aware of the sentiment and feeling of the children of general cadres because he was abroad and mainly studied in a special school. He will be surrounded by those who habitually flatter him. Therefore, it will not be easy for him to establish a proper and reputable leadership, since he cannot obtain the senses needed to make decisions and gain others’ hearts.”
Kim reiterated that Kim Jong Il’s health condition is also an important element for the establishment of the succession system.
“During Kim Jong Il’s succession process, Kim Il Sung’s stature was a decisive influence in stabilizing the succession system for a long time. It is doubtful whether young Kim Jong Eun will be able to establish his authority and power if Kim Jong Il dies in the next few years.”
He noted, “Even if Kim Jong Il does not die in the near future, he may anyway have problems making decisions, so it will be difficult to display his leadership and dominate cadres as he did.”
“Even if Kim Jong Il’s life lasts longer, he may have conflict with Kim Jong Eun and these conflicts can develop into huge political crises; thereafter, if Kim Kyung Hee and Jang Sung Taek play the role of mediator to solve those conflicts, their power will grow drastically, so another power conflict with Kim Jong Eun can be expected from that.”
