In his annual national policy statement of January 4th, South Korean President Lee Myung Bak emphasized “global diplomacy” and spoke of a “greater Republic of Korea” taking on a more significant role in world affairs. He also proclaimed, “We have to find a new turning point in inter-Korean relations this year.”
In addition, President Lee stated, “I expect denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula to advance, and active inter-Korean cooperation to take off,” and emphasized his desire to see North Korea enter into dialogue with “a sincere and open mind.” He also returned to the idea of setting up a channel for regular contact between North and South.
Throughout its tenure to date, the Lee Myung Bak administration has maintained an appropriate equilibrium in its North Korea policy. Some have criticized it as inefficient. Perhaps such criticisms can be traced back to the Sunshine Policy, which taught people to believe that inter-Korean relations are only progressing when there is frequent engagement and exchanges between them.
Instead of following that path, since its inauguration the Lee Myung Bak administration has chosen a strategy of maintaining broad principles in order to wrestle the initiative in inter-Korean relations back from Pyongyang, in which it had rested for the previous decade. This strategy was the appropriate one.
Its appropriateness is revealed in the fact that North Korea is now sounding out the South regarding a third Inter-Korean Summit; indeed the frequency of Pyongyang’s requests for a Summit has increased as time has gone by.
All things considered, the possibility of an inter-Korea summit in 2010 seems to be high. Hyun In Taek, South Korea’s Minister of Unification, went on the record last week, saying, “In 2010 there is the possibility of an inter-Korean Summit.” He also vowed to make a significant effort when the time was right.
The North Korean attitude also points towards positive developments. In its New Year’s Statement, the North called for inter-Korean dialogue and claimed, “Our stance to reform inter-Korean relations is unshakable.”
The important thing to look out for is a change to North Korea’s attitude on the nuclear issue. If North Korea returned to the Six-Party Talk and embarked on denuclearization, the Lee administration would initiate the “Grand Bargain,” and at that point holding an inter-Korean summit would be a natural part of the process.
However, problems will begin if North Korea starts using antiquated negotiating tactics. If North Korea insists on precursors to its own actions, for example the cancellation of U.N. Security Council Resolutions, abandonment of U.S. hostile policy towards North Korea, discussion of a peace treaty and economic assistance, the Lee Myung Bak administration will not have any choice but to abandon the “Grand Bargain.”
Cooperation between the U.S. and South Korea is one way to prevent North Korea from getting away with its standard negotiating strategy. Especially, both nations should closely share any information obtained through talks with the North, so that 2010 can be remembered as the first year of a “New North Korea Policy,” the first for 11 years.
