What is the likely effect of Kim Jong Il’s health problems on the succession system of Kim Jong Eun?
Some experts say that Kim Jong Il’s health problems will be the decisive variable in the succession of Kim Jong Eun; on the other hand, some believe that Kim Jong Eun has already secured the military, public safety and the core elite group, and that therefore Kim Jong Il’s death will not cause serious difficulties.
Prof. Kim Byeong Ro of Seoul National University’s Institute for Peace and Unification Studies (IPUS) told a discussion forum yesterday that he is in the first group, and that Kim Jong Il’s health problem represents the decisive variable in a stable succession. “As all the power in North Korea is concentrated in the supreme leader, it would be hard to deny the possible effect of the destiny of that one person on systemic change.”
Prof. Kim went on, “It appears that unstable factors will not arise while Kim Jong Il is still alive and during this time the North Korean authorities will devote their time to slowly building a power base.”
As of now, he added, it is also too early to determine whether Kim Jong Eun’s succession system is supported by a solid base from the people and the power elite.
He said the pressing issues for analysis include: ▲ how much actual military control there is; ▲ how the effects of potential conflicts are solved; ▲ how much control security and public organs have; and ▲ what plans are implemented to control the economy and people.
Externally, meanwhile, the focus should be: ▲ how the U.S.-North Korea dialogue and Six-Party Talks unfold; and based on that ▲ how will North-South relations and the overall changing atmosphere on the Peninsula affect the succession system.
Professor Kim believes that if all goes well, North Korea will hold a 7th Party Congress next year to publicize Kim Jong Eun as the successor, and select him as a representative to the Supreme People’s Assembly with control over ideological affairs.
In the camp of those for whom Kim Jong Il’s health is not such a key issue, meanwhile, Cheong Seong Chang of the Sejong Institute claimed that Kim Jong Eun has taken quick control of the military and public institutions so Kim Jong Il’s sudden death carries little risk of instability and will not cause serious disruption.
“Kim Jong Eun’s military domination has been carefully and systematically happening much faster than is often appreciated since February of 2009,” he said, concluding, “Hoping that the death of the supreme leader without concern for existence of the ‘control tower’ of the Workers’ Party, military and public organs would make the regime collapse is wishful thinking. It is true that Kim Jong Il is the absolutist ruler of North Korea, but we cannot equate Kim Jong Il with the whole regime.”
