[imText1]There is a clear increase of tension in the Korean peninsula and the adjacent regions.
The rumor says it is the worst crisis since the Korean War. Kim Jong Il who consistently pursued nuclear weapons despite the international pressure and isolation, of course, caused the tension.
Analyzing both classified and unclassified information, North Korea has succeeded building useable nuclear weapon and is preparing to conduct a nuclear testing. Although the US and China are trying to stop North Korea in every way possible, Kim Jong Il still stubbornly pursues a nuclear testing.
Kim Jong Il is Misjudging
Kim Jong Il has been consistent for the past two decades in believing that the nuclear weapons will protect his regime, and his belief gained more strength after he watched what happened with Iraq. He seems to believe that had Iraq and Afghanistan nuclear weapons, the US would not have attacked them.
Regardless of whether his judgment is right or wrong, because his belief is so firm that there is very little room for others to suggest him to think otherwise. In worst case, they could be labeled as spies of the enemy and purged.
Furthermore, Kim Jong Il believes that there is very little chance of the US attacking North Korea. The reasons are as such.
First, compare to 1994 when the first nuclear crisis occurred, the role of Northeast Asia in the world ongoing is much greater now that it is unlikely for the US will do something that will put Northeast Asia in chaos.
Second, considering that the US has developed closer, complex and sensitive relationship with China due to the rising importance of its China’s status in the world, the US will not take adventurous step that will endanger the Sino-US relations.
Third, the South Korean government is strongly against it and the US to attack North Korea ignoring South Korea will be difficult.
Fourth, unlike eleven years ago, North Korea now possesses nuclear weapon and in case of a war, and taking into account that Seoul and Tokyo are in missile range, any attack would not be easy.
Although it is wrong that there is little possibility for the US to attack North Korea, it is true that it is truly difficult for the US to make such a decision. Not only because of the strong opposition from the South Korean part, but it must consider that South Korea and Japan will be exposed to nuclear attack and it must consider more the US-China relations.
However, if the US believes North Korean nuclear weapons are dangerous yet pressure through China is no effective and regime change through China is impossible, there is a possibility that it could act on its own.
The End of the Kim Jong Il Regime Advanced with the Nuclear Development
Kim Jong Il took 70 million people in the Korean peninsula as hostage and endangered 150 million East Asians. Fortunately he is coward, but since he is a person with dangerous mentality, capable of doing anything possible to maintain his regime, so we cannot loosen our vigilance and suspicion on him.
Although Kim Jong Il believes that nuclear weapons will protect his regime, but the truth is opposite. The US could attack North Korea, but even if it does not, nuclear development will be one of the main elements that will shorten the life of the Kim Jong Il regime.
What withhold the current Kim Jong Il regime are Sino-North Korea relations, strong military, and various forceful mechanisms that enables his dictatorship. However, nuclear development can create holes in all three areas.
It is hard to say that the Sino-North Korean relations will be distorted due to Kim Jong Il’s nuclear development but it will make the relationship difficult and with a stronger economic sanction, Kim Jong Il regime will lose the hearts of the North Korean people. With the China’s change in position and the disengaged people, the hearts of the military and political cadres will also be troubled.
Unlike his beliefs, the end of the Kim Jong Il regime will be advanced by the nuclear development.
Policies Towards North Korea Must be Completely Changed
Kim Jong Il regime had many chanced until now and although South Korea, China, and Russia all tried to help Kim Jong Il, he betrayed good intentions and walked the isolated and extreme path.
Before it criticized Kim Jong Il’s foolishness, the South Korean society must first retrospect the position of the intellectuals in South Korea.
South Korean government’s policies towards North Korea and the intellectuals’ confusion made the North Korean nuclear problem more difficult until now. Where are those who have been for long arguing Kim Jong Il is no trying to develop nuclear weapons but is only using the nuclear issue as a negotiating card to obtain more aid? Where are those who have sent astronomical amount of money in cash?
What makes us more angry is the fact that many of those who have been arguing wrong are still repeating themselves as parrots even at this moment, while North Korea is developing nuclear weapons and trying to conduct a nuclear testing.
Although North Korea had been involved in missile and drug trafficking and money laundering, but because North Korea was in need of foreign currency in many ways, we could say that the money secretly sent to North Korea or the cash that flowed into North Korea for the Keumkang mountain tour contributed a lot to the nuclear development.
Many experts in voiced warned the danger of sending cash to North Korea. Now many people are angry with the government or political groups that have ignored such advises but sent a great amount of money.
We must look back discerningly the seriousness of the situation we are faced with. It is about time the US-ROK alliance and relationships with other neighboring countries to be reevaluated and the policies towards North Korea revised. We do not have much time left.