There are concerns in Seoul that North Korea is planning a fresh provocation aimed at South Korea. Worried analysts cite the fact that Kim Jong Eun has been focusing his onsite guidance at military bases since the third nuclear test on February 12th, not to mention recent news of preparations for large-scale military exercises and the fact that the successful nuclear test must have given the Kim regime added confidence.
Those who are expecting a fresh provocation say that it will be done in order to put pressure on the new Park Geun Hye administration to alter its malleable North Korea policy.
A South Korean military official declared anonymously on the 3rd, “North Korea is preparing for military training nationwide, and it seems that there will also be live-fire training on the East Sea coast involving the army, navy and air force.”
Jeong Seung Jo, the chair of the ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff also stressed on the 2nd, “The enemy will inevitably provoke us.” He went on to state that South Korea is prepared and must not succumb to North Korean threats, saying, “In the event that the enemy provokes us then it is important for us to win the fight right there and then.”
Notably, the South Korean military is increasing its combat readiness, primarily because the North Korean military is conducting the unusually large-scale military training this year.
Some experts are particularly keen to emphasize the confidence felt by Kim Jong Eun following the recent successful long-range missile launch and nuclear test.
Oh Gyung Seob, a researcher with the Sejong Institute told Daily NK, “North Korea is having a lot of fun propagating the ICBM and nuclear test as Kim Jong Eun’s achievements. In addition, they are quite likely to conduct additional missile and nuclear tests in the name of perfecting miniaturization and ICBM technologies.”
“Given such self-confidence, there is a chance that they will provoke across the Northern Limit Line or undertake cyber terror attacks like DDos,” he went on. “In the end, North Korean provocations are a message to the Park Geun Hye administration to change its policy towards North Korea.”
Professor Kim Yeon Soo of Korea National Defense University agreed, predicting, “Kim Jong Eun has gained confidence from the recent nuclear test, so, to raise military tension in the future, they will probably conduct another provocation towards South Korea.”
“ROK-U.S. joint training is scheduled for next month, and therefore North Korea will maintain its tense military readiness condition until then,” he added.
North Korean has a history of provocations when South Korea is going through a transition in power, another issue that is feeding the current fears. For example, there was the launch of a long-range missile in February 2008 at the dawn of the Lee Myung Bak administration. Even the nominally friendly Kim Dae Jung administration saw North Korea fire off the Taepodong-1 missile at its inception in February 1998.
