[imText1]If we ask South Korean people to name all the North Korean politicians they know, on the top of the list, Kim Il Sung (deceased), Kim Jong Il, then the list would be followed as Oh Jin Woo (deceased), Yeon Hyung Muk, and Cho Myung Rok. Yeon Hyung Muk received much attention due to his visit to South Korea in 1990s for the inter-Korea summit, who was the prime minister at the time.
After the summit, Yeon was discharged from his post in 1992, and was positioned as secretary general of the Jagang Provincial Party. Understanding it in South Korean perspective, it meant a minister repositioned as a provincial minister in a day, so many questioned whether it meant a relegation. It was reasonable to ask such a question since he was demoted from the Central Party Politics Department Committee member, which the position he held since 1974 to a nominee to be member.
From “Rumor of Relegation” to “Kim Jong Il’s Right Arm”
However, Jagang Province is where military industries are concentrated, so another perspective suggested a possibility for his “temporary task” at an urgent time. In fact, Yeon Hyung Wook was the 21st on the rank line at the funeral of Kim Il Sung in July 1994, which assured of his position. In 1998, Yeon was appointed as commissioner of the National Defense Commission.
February 1, 2002 Pyongyang Broadcasting reported that Kim Jong Il invited Yeon Hung Muk’s family to his train accommodation and encouraged them. It reveals a great amount of trust from Kim Jong Il’s part on Yeon Hyung Muk.
In 2001, North Korea produced a movie called, “People of Jagang Province” which is about how the people of Jagang province survived through the “March of Tribulation” (a period of severe food crisis) with their strong mental determination. This proves that Yeon Hyung Muk was able to successfully fulfill his task at his designated place.
For this reason, the nickname of Yeon Hyung Muk is known to be “Kim Jong Il’s right arm.”
Change of Jagangdo Provincial Governor Reported by Rodong Sinmun (North Korea’s National Newspaper)
Rodong Sinmun on May 6 reported the Jagang provincial governor as Park Do Chun. Thus it was known that Yeon Hyung Muk no longer hold the governor position of Jagang province.
Since the journalists in North Korea risk their lives for error or any typo, so there was no possibility of mistaking the name of the governor.
For this reason there are different aspects about whether Yeon was repositioned, promoted, relegated or if there is any other possibility.
Possibility ① – Retirement due to Illness
First of all, Yeon Hyung Muk is aged, born in 1931, and is known to have heart disease. There is an aspect that Yeon left his position due to health reasons.
However, since there is no pool of people available to fill the absence so as we could see in case of North Korea’s former People’s Army Defense Commander, Won Eung Hee (deceased May 4), many people hold their positions until their death. They would rather leave the image of themselves working for the Dear Leader until the last moment of their lives instead of simply retired.
Possibility ② – Promoted as National Defense Commission No.1 Commissioner?
Second, if Yeon Hyung Muk is to be promoted yet to a higher position, then we could predict the position to be the No. 1 Commissioner of the National Defense Commission.
The present No.1 Commissioner of the National Defense Commission is known to be Cho Myung Rok, but he is also known to have health problems (cancer on his pancreas and chronic renal failure, known to be treated in China and Russia). He did not appear on the North Korean media for a while but recently showed up in February, starting with “Military-First Revolution Extensive Military Rally” and participated in various occasions since then. However, one can easily notice that he is pale and emaciated that he looks much different than before especially compared with past pictures.
In any case, Yeon Hyung Muk could take the position delicately taken by Cho Myung Rok but the current position of Yeon Hyung Muk is already Under-Commander of the the National Defense Commission. It is unlikely to push Yeon position that far to fill the potential absence after Cho Myung Rok.
Possibility ③ – Confinement or Purge?
Third possibility is that Yeon Hyung Muk could be under a confinement by losing Kim Jong Il’s trust like Chang Sung Taek. There is also voice raised about a possibility of purge of Yeon for the succession issue of Kim Jong Il. However, the North Korean defectors who are well acquainted with Kim Jong Il testify against the latter possibility.
Yeon is known to be “a person who does not give second thoughts.” That is a big difference from Chang Sung Taek. Furthermore, he is known to give directs words to Kim Jong Il.
Kim Tae San, a defector who used to work at light industry sector of internal government in North Korea, says when Kim Jong Il came to visit Jagang province, Yeon Hyung Muk strongly suggested, “there is a urgent need of plan because the people are starving to death,” and because of this the guards pulled out their guns but Kim Jong Il stopped them but rather complimented Yeon. Kim Tae San evaluated, “Yeon Hyung Muk is the only person who can say right things to Kim Jong Il.”
Therefore, although Kim Jong Il has a personality like a fire, unless there was a critical mistake, there is a very little possibility that Kim Jong Il will relegate Yeon. If Kim Jong Il did, it would be a big disadvantage, say the experts. Yeon’s absence would me another disappearance of the few bridges that connects Kim Jong Il’s decision making ability and the reality.
There is least possibility of purge of Yeon Hyung Muk due Yeon’s intent for succession. At least Chang Sung Taek had connection of Kim Kyung Hee but there is no reason for Yeon to greed for more power at his current position. All this time he was loyal to Kim Jong Il. There is a very little possibility of Yeon’s purge due to succession issue but rather Yeon is a person who would take a lead to assist Kim Jong Il to build succession structure.
Possibilities ④⑤ – mission or death?
Fourth, there is a possibility of sending Yeon to another important mission like in 1992. However, Yeon is now too old for that. He is 74 years old this year.
Fifth, some experts believe Yeon is near death or has already deceased.
Kim Yong Sun, Secretary General of South Korea (Department) of the Worker’s Party, is known to be dead during his long internment for medical treatment after a car accident that occurred in June 16, 2003. While people started wonder of Kim Yong Sun’s disappearance from public scenes, there was a sudden report on his death. (He is known to have a car accident on the birthday of Koh Young Hee, and many predict that his death was due to the car accident after driving drunk)
However, as we have seen previously, there is little possibility of both his near death or past death. It would be a unprecedented case for him to not hold his position until his death and if he has passed away, (if there is no major problem) his death would be reported by Rodong Sinmun as have been for Kim Yong Sun. For a person like Yeon, there must be a grand funeral. After Kim Young Sun’s death, North Korea produced a movie called “Shining Life’s Embrace” commemorating him, and honored him with “Hero Status.”
In Any case, Not a Good News
Like we have studied, there are many possibilities, and although not assured, the highest possibility is his confinement, or change of his position for another mission.
If Yeon is under confinement, it means Kim Jong Il is missing a screw on his break, which used to control Kim Jong Il’s thought balance. If Yeon is working for another one of the important missions, since he worked for military sector all his life, it is worse news for us. What would he be doing at this crucial period? It deeply concerns us.
