Kim Jong Eun will be keeping an even more watchful eye on half-brother Kim Jong Nam after the latter told a Japanese newspaper that the dynastic system in North Korea is “not right”, according to a Blue House security official. There are even fears for the life of Kim Jong Il’s eldest son in diplomatic circles now that his father is gone.

In a bold attack on the country’s political system and new leader, Kim Jong Nam made the comments in an email exchange with a Tokyo Shimbun editor on January 3rd, claiming, “Nobody in their right mind would find it easy to accept the 3rd generation succession,” before adding, “Doubts linger over whether 37 years of absolute power can be carried forward by a young leader after just two years of training.”

Kim had previously revealed his misgivings at the course of the North Korean leadership in an interview with the same newspaper last January, when he highlighted the point that even Maoist China didn’t attempt a hereditary succession.

The Blue House official went on, “Kim Jong Eun would be extremely wary of the possibility of Kim Jong Nam emerging as a political rival. It’s possible that he perceives some possibility that Jong Nam may win over some military heavyweights and lead a revolt against the system.”

The likelihood of this outcome is adjudged to be small, but present. Sohn Gwang Joo of Gyeonggi Research Institute estimates the chance of Kim Jong Nam challenging his half-brother for the country’s leadership “at about 10%,” reasoning that “This man who never showed any real bold dissatisfaction with his father’s decisions while he was still alive might now reveal his true intentions.”

“Although he is an illegitimate child, now (Jong Eun’s mother) Ko Young Hee has passed away he would think he is nothing less than Jong Eun,” Sohn added.

The fact that Kim Jong Nam is willing to risk his personal safety by making such comments may indicate a belief that the Kim Jong Eun regime’s prospects for success are poor. By distancing himself from the regime, he leaves himself in a good position to enter the fray should there be a seismic change in the North Korean political landscape going forward.

A well-informed Japanese expert on North Korea commented of the matter, “Kim Jong Nam understands economics and how the international community works, so he is aware of what the country needs. He still bears some resentment at the fact that his father did not choose him even though he thought he would have been able to help solve North Korea’s economic troubles.”

This source said that Kim Jong Nam had previously expressed his fondness for freedom, citing his education in the West, and has commented on the failure of North Korea’s economic system in the past, saying, “Now that the currency revaluation policy has failed, North Korea ought to take an interest in reform and opening.”

There are some who believe that Kim Jong Nam may yet turn up the volume of his criticism towards the Kim Jong Eun system. Despite a widely held interpretation that his criticism of North Korea was more or less a way for him to express his dissatisfaction with his father while he was still alive, his recent comments have the potential to indicate otherwise.

Regardless of the danger he may be in, the Blue House official said that there is little chance of this leading to his assassination, noting, “No matter how much of a thorn in the eye Jong Nam is to his brother, the chance of Jong Eun trying to get rid of him while he is under the protection of China, and at the risk of creating an international incident, seems pretty low.”