The Inter-Korea Cabinet Talks which will begin on the 29th is expected to have positive results, especially with a warm breezing blowing throughout the nation from the two trains which crossed the East Sea line and Kyunghi line on 17th. Nonetheless, many argue that this will not be as easy as it seems.
Following his appointment, Minister of Unification, Lee Jae Jung has been proclaiming “systematization of the South-North relations.” The government believes that the upcoming Inter-Korea Cabinet Talks which follows the rail test-run will be a critical opportunity in systematizing South-North relations.
Nevertheless, the issue of transferring North Korea’s funds caught in BDA is a wall that must be overcome. The South Korean government has decided to reserve the 400,000tons of rice it promised at the last Inter-Korea Cabinet Talks, until after the implementation of the Feb 13 Agreement.
A governmental official said on the 25th, “As revealed at the last Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Promotion Committee in April, the pace and timing of the government’s rice support will depend on North Korea’s actions.” The Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Promotion Committee initially planned to send the first bags of rice at the end of May.
On May 15th, the South Korean government decided to spend $154mn for rice and 18.6bn won for transportation fees and other incidental expenses from the Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Fund. However realistically, it seems difficult to initiate the settlement by the end of May as the rice has yet to be purchased, let alone a contract hiring a vessel.
Undoubtedly, reserving rice aid will have a big impact on the Inter-Korea Cabinet Talks. Following North Korea’s missile launch last July, the South Korean government has revealed that it reserved rice aid. North Korea reacted by pulling the date forward for the 19th Cabinet Talks but in the end retracted from the talks altogether.
Further, a spokeperson for the North Korean Council for Reconciliation and Cooperation asserted on the 24th, “Associating the Inter-Korean economic cooperation promotion with the nuclear issue is a dishonest political aim that is a great challenge and aggression against our country and direction of our nation’s unification that cannot be tolerated.”
Despite these comments, the overall consensus of postponing rice aid to North Korea until after the February 13 Agreement is positive. One analyst of a national policy institution said, “Even though it may disable advancements in the South-North relationship for now, for the abolishment of North Korea’s nukes, we must cooperate with the international society.”
It seems that Unification Minister Lee Jae Jung is pessimistic about the upcoming Inter-Korea Talks. Regarding his concerns, Minister Lee forecasted, “The Inter-Korean Talks will make a difference because the rice loan and Inter-Korea Talks are categorized into different cases.”
At the last Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Promotion Committee the government agreed to send 400,000tons of rice to North Korea as of the end of May. Many argue that the government should have revealed that the pace and timing of the aid would depend on North Korea’s implementation of the February 13 Agreement.
In order to moderate the Inter-Korea talks, it seems that the South Korean government will explain the background of reservation of the rice loan. If the talks cruise along, it seems that the talks on the Korean Peninsula’s peace system and a step by step opening of rail route between South and North Korea will be discussed.
At the least, it seems that the government wants to discuss accepting trains up to Kaesung Industrial Complex. Currently, there are more than 15,000 North Korean workers at Kaesong Complex and this number is expected to increase dramatically within the near future.
However, above all things, the talks will discuss issues pertaining to “the peace system” with the South and the North.
Minister Lee said, “The topic that will be highlighted at the Inter-Korea Talks to take place at the end of this month is ‘Peace on the Korean Peninsula’” and revealed. “We are planning to discuss the ‘processes of peace on the Korean Peninsula’ and discuss how and what categories are needed.”
Even still, there are many concerns regarding South-North relations. The structure of South-North relations must confront the momentum that the six party talks cannot.
Though some said that the South Korean government may maximize the six party talks to progress the Inter-Korea relations, some others criticize that the South Korean government overestimates the North Korea regime, which is only prioritizes the BDA issue and normalization of U.S.-North Korea relations.
