North Korea has been on the media offensive, publishing four straight days of criticisms of the Ulchi Freedom Guardian (UFG) military exercises through various outlets.
While many dismiss such criticisms as little more than venting, some note that they may represent the groundwork by which to rationalize future military provocations, and so have to be taken seriously.
Rodong Shinmun, the daily mouthpiece of the Chosun Workers’ Party, stated on August 17th that UFG represents “the manifestation of a wicked plan to start the second Chosun (Korean) War by destroying the peace and intensifying tensions on the Chosun Peninsula,” and warned, “South Korea must remember that they will not be safe when they keep provoking war.”
Before which, the General Staff of the People’s Army called the event a “practical deployment step” on August 15th and threatened a military response. In addition, North Korea shouted down UFG through a Chosun Central News Agency article on August 16th, saying, “They should be well aware that the determined stance of our military, which is at saturation level, is not an empty claim!”
UFG and other military exercises scheduled for the coming months are all taking place with inter-Korean relations at their worst for some time thanks to the Cheonan incident. Additionally, the United States is scheduled to announce and implement new financial sanctions at the end of this month.
Therefore, one analysis has it that since North Korea, which fired its coastal batteries across the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea on August 9th in resistance to South Korean military training exercises there, is facing military tensions and U.S. financial sanctions, there is a high possibility that they will risk a fresh provocation.
In addition, given the fact that North Korea’s provocations are as much for internal solidarity and displaying the power of the system as anything else, the possibility of a provocation now is higher than ever. North Korea has scheduled its 3rd ever Chosun Workers’ Party Delegates Conference for early September. Also, big commemorative events like the foundation day of the Republic on September 9th and the Party on October 10th are impending.
This speculation gains strength when we consider that the Kim Jong Eun succession system is likely to play a big part in the Chosun Workers’ Party Delegates Conference. Some suggest it will not be easy for North Korea, which is concentrating on establishing the succession system, to produce a huge provocation; however, experts speculate that we cannot rule out the probability of their needing to establish military tensions intentionally for the benefit of the succession system.
The nature of any fresh provocation could be in the form of a third nuclear test, an experiment with its uranium enrichment program or the firing of missiles, down to the firing of its coastal batteries. Military tensions could also be increased by blocking land routes across the DMZ, however, since South Korea is already preparing for psychological warfare against North Korea there and the Kaesong Industrial Complex is a foreign currency earner for the regime, the possibility of provocation there is thought to be low.
One North Korean source, offering his prediction, said, “There is the possibility that they will aim for system solidarity by creating a battle atmosphere domestically prior to the Chosun Workers’ Party Delegates Conference and Foundation Day. Especially, they are conducting all sorts of mobilization projects for the establishment of a strong and prosperous state, but if no visible achievements can be shown, they could choose to fire a Taepodong missile.”
Kim Yeon Su, a professor at Korea National Defense University, anticipated, “They are allegedly modernizing the missile launching site at Dongchang-ri, and this place could be used for the idolization of Kim Jong Eun. Especially, there is the possibility of an armed protest taking place here prior to the Chosun Workers’ Party Delegates Conference.”
In addition, Professor Kim added, “(North Korea wants to) increase the tension on the Korean Peninsula prior to the G20 so as to pressure China.”
