Chinese Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs Wu Dawei’s energetic bout of shuttle diplomacy continues apace, with Wu now in the United States after talks in both South Korea and Japan. The key question is whether this will bring about a return to denuclearization negotiations in the near future.
The volume of the speculation has been getting louder since Kim Jong Il told Chinese President Hu Jintao, “We hope for the quick resumption of the Six-Party Talks” during their recent meeting in northeast China, while South Korea and the U.S are both showing signs of moving toward a more flexible position than had been evident until recently.
Those voices asserting that the resumption of the Six-Party Talks will be difficult are still louder; however, the general presumption in diplomatic circles is that South Korea and the U.S will not be able to ignore the Chinese efforts indefinitely.
In Seoul, there are clear signs of a change, from “Cheonan incident first, Six-Party talks later” to a so-called “two-track approach,” whereby Cheonan incident measures and the denuclearization process are placed side-by-side.
The South Korean government has slowly shifted in a way that can be characterized as: Cheonan incident is the priority→ denuclearization process is also important→ Cheonan incident and denuclearization are separate issues→ ”two-track approach” of pressure and discussion.
“When looking at the current situation, we need to make a general judgment,” according to a high ranking Ministry for Foreign Affairs and Trade official seeking to explain the change. “Whether the matter at hand is one of the Cheonan incident or denuclearization, we need to evaluate North Korea’s movements generally. If North Korea makes a positive movement, we will follow a ‘two-track approach’ of proceeding with the discussion and applying pressure simultaneously.”
“Even if we discuss the resumption of discussions with North Korea, the sanctions will continue. Therefore, this can be seen as a movement to seek the resumption of the discussion whilst proceeding with the sanctions,” he added.
On this, a different diplomatic source commented, “The most important factor in the resumption of the discussion is North Korea having a progressive attitude, however, as China strides forward in the denuclearization process, South Korea and the U.S. cannot ignore them for long.”
“The denuclearization of the Korean peninsula is also desired by South Korea and the U.S,” he added, “therefore, they would not wish for a delay in denuclearization. Especially if North Korea shows an advanced attitude toward denuclearization, the situation will change to one of discussion.”
The U.S. is also displaying a moderate position, suggesting that a discussion can take place if North Korea shows signs of a changed approach, which is different from their initial position of stating that discussions would absolutely not take place without an apology from North Korea for the Cheonan incident.
A State Department spokesman, Philip Crowley displayed the change clearly when he told reporters on September 1st, “We want to see an advance from the situation that we are currently in. But it is up to North Korea first and foremost to demonstrate, not just by words but by actions, that it’s prepared to follow a more constructive path. As North Korea demonstrates to us that it’s prepared to engage constructively, then we will evaluate those actions and, after consultations with other countries, be prepared to respond.
Thus, it seems that the U.S. is leaning toward discussion; while the Chinese Vice Minister is visiting the U.S., the U.S. has again urged North Korea to change its attitude, and also they appear to have delivered an indirect message suggesting that discussions can take place when the situation improves.
While in Washington, Wu met Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Curt Campbell, Special Representative for North Korea Policy Steven Bosworth, and the U.S.’ Six-Party Talks envoy, Sung Kim.
Particularly, Wu allegedly commented loudly on the necessity of bilateral contacts between the U.S. and North Korea to discuss the issue of denuclearization, and proposed to James Steinberg an unofficial discussion at a time when all the members of the Six-Party Talks will be together.
On this notion, Philip Crowley did not dismiss the possibility of bilateral contact, but placed it in the Six-Party Talks context, commenting, “Within the Six-Party process, obviously, there’s the opportunity for bilateral discussions as well.”
In addition, there is talk that Wu has presented a new idea which might shift the situation, derived from his saying that a “new proposal” would be made while in Japan on August 31st.
The details of Wu’s “new proposal” are not known publicly; however, there is a possibility that he presented advanced topics for discussion with North Korea in order to persuade South Korea, the U.S. and Japan, and also, it may be related to the abduction issue, given that it was only raised in Japan.
Indeed, even Japan, which has maintained a principled position until now, registered the possibility of resuming the discussion following Special Representative Wu’s proposal.
Kyoto News Agency reported on August 31st that Japanese Foreign Minister Okada Katsuya, after his meeting with Wu, stated, “We need to review (the new Chinese proposal) with the related nations. We need to hear the opinion of each nation.”
Meanwhile, South Korea’s denuclearization point man, Wi Sung Lac arrived in Washington on September 2nd to mediate between the South Korean and U.S. positions. He is due to meet James Steinberg in Washington today, the 3rd.
“South Korea and the U.S. are scheduled to discuss the Six-Party talks and how to respond to the current North Korean sanctions situation,” a high government official in Seoul explained. “They will be discussing how to manage this ‘two-track approach of pressure and discussion.’”
It is probable that, in the end, any first contact will come during the UN General Assembly, scheduled for the end of this month, when all the relevant Six-Party Talks nations will be gathered in one place.
