North Korea’s General Staff Department conducted a tactical exercise simulating the first week of a war on the Korean Peninsula and reported the results to the party’s Central Military Commission. The General Staff Department plans to develop measures for each military branch and specialty based on the exercise results and incorporate them into the army’s regular winter exercise beginning Dec. 1.
According to a Daily NK source in the North Korean military recently, the simulation drill was conducted by the General Staff Department’s combat training bureau for a week starting at 8 p.m. on Aug. 17.
“The week-long exercise that began on Aug. 17 involved simultaneous situational drills conducted in each unit’s command bunker, with the data produced entered into a computer program to generate the results,” the source said.
Given that the Ulchi Freedom Shield combined exercise carried out by South Korea and the United States from Aug. 18 included a command post drill, it appears North Korea also conducted a command post drill in response.
The drill was based on a scenario simulating the first week of a war on the Korean Peninsula and focused on digitizing variables in the operational zones of the Army, Navy and Air Force, air and sea superiority, missile defense, infiltrations and precision strikes, and operational sustainability.
Simulation results show early military setbacks
The General Staff Department digitized the data based on the mock war’s progression, using a time scale, and replayed the war using a computer program to produce attrition and combat sustainability indexes, which were included in the final report.
In the actual report, the scenario showed the loss of air and naval superiority in the first two days of the war, the launch and interception of some of the Strategic Force’s missiles on Days 3 and 4, infiltration attempts by the Army and Special Operation Force on Days 5 and 6, and the seizure of complete operational initiative on Day 7.
The report’s conclusion stated that the North Korean military would likely be at a disadvantage in the early phases of a war, which was duly reported to the party’s Central Military Commission.
In its analysis of each service branch, the report noted that if the Air Force fails to gain air superiority in the early stages due to inferior forces, limitations could arise in joint operations with the Navy’s flotillas, which operate separately in the East Sea and Yellow Sea. Moreover, as the Air Force’s airborne early warning (AEW) capabilities remain unverified, the service’s AEW and control operations face limitations.
Regarding the Army and Special Operation Force, the report said that even if early armed clashes and deep infiltrations were possible, given the enemy’s extensive surveillance capabilities and precision strikes, operational sustainability would be difficult to ensure, and North Korea would face limitations in maintaining supply lines and long-range mobility.
As for the Strategic Force, its missiles and nuclear weapons would serve as a deterrent and retaliatory threat, but they were at high risk of being detected before launch or intercepted, the report said. However, it also stated that, given how South Korea, the United States, and Japan’s multilayered missile defense system (Aegis–THAAD–PAC-3) reduces the threat rather than completely neutralizing it, some of North Korea’s simultaneous launches or saturation strikes would likely succeed, depending on the war’s development.
The General Staff Department’s combat training bureau plans to develop corrective measures for each service branch based on the results calculated from the drill and apply them during the regular winter training exercise that begins Dec. 1. The major items for consideration include strengthening the Strategic Force’s operational procedures, bolstering the Air Force’s anti-air and early-warning capabilities, improving joint tactics between the Navy and Air Force, and adjusting the operational methods of the Special Operation Force.
“The measures based on the results will be reflected in the orders for the winter training for 2025-2026, which begins Dec. 1,” the source said. “The General Staff Department wants to overcome and correct the weaknesses revealed through the simulation drill during the actual exercise.”
