Military Tension, Negotiating Advantage

North Korea has been engaging in raising military tensions along the Military Demarcation Line (MDL), where the border between South and North intersects.

The North Korean authorities have strongly criticized the South Korea-U.S. joint military drills “Key-Resolve” and “Foal Eagle” as usual, calling them aggressive war drills, and claim that the activities of U.S. and South Korean forces are growing intolerable.

North Korea sent its resolute stance in a notice to the South Korean military on 28th February, stating, “U.S. forces’ provocative actions and offenses are becoming extremely serious around the MDL. If the U.S. forces continue to act arrogantly within the Joint Security Area (at Panmunjom, the truce village between the two Koreas), our army will retaliate.”

The North detailed U.S. forces’ alleged offenses in the notice, claiming that, “On January 5 the U.S. forces crossed the MDL, entering North Korean territorial waters by approximately 30 meters in the West Sea, taking photos of North Korean guard posts and monitoring North Korean vehicles; and this year, up until February 20, 58 U.S. forces’ vehicles and 62 persons had crossed the MDL and investigated the area surrounding the Joint Security Area, travelling up to 100 meters north a total of 66 times.”

Regarding the “Key-Resolve” drill, North Korean publication Tongil Shinbo said on the 28th that, “It is a dangerous military movement which adds fuel to the fire of war. If the drill is carried out, all the responsibility for the aftermath will be on the shoulders of the U.S. and South Korea.”

In the analysis of North Korea experts, the North’s denouncement is designed to justify a possible provocative incursion into South Korean territory. Lee Sang Hee, Minister of National Defense, already pointed out that North Korea might do so after deliberately raising military tensions along the NLL in the West Sea.

The possibility of overland provocations is relatively high because it can cause extreme tension while causing minor physical damage to either side, while the North already knows its naval power is far inferior to that of the South.

Jeon Sung Hoon, researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, summed the situation up concisely, “North Korea’s provocations are just in order to occupy a vantage point in negotiations.”