September’s grain yield projection for the Ripsok Cooperative Farm in Mundok Country, South Pyongan Province, has been set at 60% of the estimate made earlier in the year.
North Korea habitually sets high grain production targets but in reality, the government actually expects to achieve 60%-70% of the projection. For example, last year the Ripsok Cooperative Farm set their grain production goal at 6000 tons, but achieved an actual yield of 3800 tons.
This year’s harvest is expected to reach only 3600 tons, representing an approximate 5% decline from last year.
Analysts have predicted a reduced grain harvest this year due to damage from the drought and typhoon that hit North Korea’s grain producing regions including South Pyongan and North and South Hwanghae provinces. However, this report marks the first internal acknowledgement of the country’s reduced grain yield.
“In the middle of September, cadres from the Rural Management Committee came out to check the crop yield and estimated that it will be less than last year’s,” a source in South Pyongan Province told Daily NK.
At the end of August and early September each year in South Pyongan Province, the Party’s district agriculture department cadres, collective farm advisers, and people’s committee agriculture managers tour the farms and determine expected grain yields. These estimates are conducted nationwide and the information is sent to the central government.
Ripsok Cooperative Farm is considered a highly productive farm with an annual planned grain production of 6000 tons, at a 7:3 ratio of rice to corn and other grains. Its continued operation involves approximately 5000 people, including farmers and household members.
However, when the Mundok County Party Committee members, Rural Management Committee and other cadres heard that the year’s harvest will be lower than last year’s, they were openly disappointed. Officials believe that natural disasters were a major cause, the source said.
Even if the production fails to reach its projected yield, the North Korean government buys back 30% of the grain based on its original planned output. Although the national price is 240 won per kilo, the market price is 5000 won per kilo, which means that the government basically buys the grain for free.
After the government buyback, seeds, grains and debts are repaid, and the remaining profit is distributed to the farmers.
“After considering the buyback from the government, as well as the storage of seeds and grain and debt repayment, the farmers who have worked so hard throughout the hot summer to prevent crop damage will receive a lot less than they did last year,” a separate source in South Pyongan Province reported.
If the trend is reflected more widely through North and South Pyongan and North and South Hwanghae provinces, North Korea may soon be facing a serious food supply problem, which will drive up rice prices and cause anxiety in the North Korean market.
To increase the amount of grain that will be returned to the government, the North Korean authorities issued instructions to ensure that the fall harvest and buyback processes are conducted as planned and without unexpected losses.
Earlier this month, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported that from mid-July to early August in North Korea, approximately 99,000 hectares of farmland was damaged from the country’s heatwave and drought. The FAO subsequently raised concerns that North Korea’s breadbasket regions such as the provinces of North and South Hwanghae might face major setbacks with crop production.
*Translated by Yongmin Lee