Democratization protests in Libya are entering an important phase. Due to early bloody suppression of the movement, the death toll already exceeds 300; yet despite this, the protests have moved from Benghazi to Tripoli, the capital.
Seif Al Islam Qadhafi, the second son of ruler Muammar Qadhafi, has apologized for the military’s actions and offered to amend the constitution and media laws. However, he has also warned that if protests continue to expand, the situation could turn into a civil war between pro- and anti-government groups.
The Libyan government has also been keen to state that Egypt and Libya are different. Experts agree with this, saying that Libya is much the more authoritarian. Looked at through the lens of the South Korean experience, Seo Jeong Min, a professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, says, “Libya can be seen as in between South Korea’s Yushin dictatorship of the 1960s and North Korea.”
As such, the similarities are sufficient that if the Qadhafi system collapses it will be a source of jitters in Pyongyang, and could have an effect on the more worldly of North Korean cadres.
First and foremost, Qadhafi, who took power in 1969, wields the most absolute power among leaders of the autocratic Arab states, according to Professor Seo.
He is also said to be planning to hand power down to his son, in much the same way as in North Korea. In the Libyan case, it is said to be a battle between Al Islam, the second son, and Mutassim, the fourth.
Alongside the idiosyncratic “Green Book”, “people’s direct democracy” is Qadhafi’s ruling framework, and this also has characteristics that North Koreans might recognize. Needless to say, “people’s direct democracy” is not particularly democratic, involving as it does local level people’s congresses, which are stacked with Qadhafi loyalists, sending members to the central General People’s Congress. Since all levels are thus full of individuals loyal to Qadhafi, there is little democratic functionality. In this, it is similar to North Korea’s Supreme People’s Assembly.
On the other hand, young Libyans can and do utilize sites like Facebook, and the people also use cell phones to exchange information. Yet North Korean is edging closer to this; it is true that the people cannot access the internet freely, but a 3G communications network exists thanks to Orascom, an Egyptian company, and the company says it has more than 300,000 subscribers. Orascom says it aims to have 90% of North Korean citizens subscribe to the service, and notes that the number of voice and text message users is continuously increasing.
Of course, there are other key differences between North Korea and Libya: per capita GNP is a healthy $18,400, for one. Also, Libya is much freer in terms of the ability to travel abroad. Finally, while anti-government protests are disapproved of, anti-government intellectuals and Islamic groups do exist.
Despite these differences, if Libya were to collapse, the sense of crisis within the North Korean leadership would be bound to increase. If protests were to spread to China, for example, Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Eun would try and block that information out, but by that stage it would be hard to guarantee success.
