[imText1]A Hong Kong press recently reported that Kim Jong Il’s successor will be decided sometime this month and proposed that even if a third generation North Korea dictator is determined by descent, he would be no more than an ostensible military leader.”
Ken Gause, Director of the Foreign Leadership Studies Program of the Center for Strategic Studies, CNA Corporation in the U.S. revealed in an interview with Radio Free Asia (RFA) on the 10th “When considering the reparations required for the coronation of a successor, the list of nominations for Kim Jong Il’s successor is relatively slow.
It has been analyzed that the position of successor will be disputed by Kim Jong Il’s three sons, his first son by former Seong Hye Rim, Jong Nam (35 years old), his second son with former Koh Young Hee, Jong Chul (25 years old) and third son Jong Woon (22 years old).
Director Gause said “Dictator Kim Jong Il is now 65 years of age, his kidneys and livers are not good, he has diabetes, high blood pressure. His health is so bad, it seems that it will be difficult for him to pass the age of 70” and “It is a critical time for a successor to be selected.”
“In this case, there is more or less 5 years left for Kim to relinquish his sovereignty to his successor” indicating that “(Even if a successor is elected immediately) The time is too short for a leader to become powerful enough to control a system without the aid of military officials.”
Director Gause added “If the younger sons Kim Jong Chul or Kim Jong Woon become the next successor, it is uncertain whether or not the time remaining will be enough for them to be educated as a leader and for a swift succession.”
Furthermore, Gause argued that it will be certain for Kim Jong Il’s successor to be merely an ostensible military leader.
He said “Compared to Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il does not seem to possess absolute power like his father” and “If a successor does arise from one of Kim Jong Il’s sons, his position will merely be a title with little chances of a militaristic leader.”
However he said “In the case Kim Jong Il suddenly dies without having nominated a successor, the worst case scenario may occur with North Korea detonating its nuclear armaments for a world war” and “North Korea’s advisory committee will divide into different forces and all will focus on gaining power.”
He foretold “In this case, North Korea will only become isolated from the world and a complicated system further away from the international community.”