[imText1]As rumor has it that Kim Jong Il’s physical status continues to decline, the list of possible successors is not in order yet. It is because Kim Jong Il may fear becoming a nominal leader as his father, Kim Il Sung, became in the last years of his reign.
At a lecture at Yonsei University on the 28th, defector Kim Tae San and former owner of a shoe joint-venture factory with the Czech Republic gave two reasons to explain Kim Jong Il’s hesitation in nominating successors. The first he argued was that Kim Jong Il “fears he will become a scarecrow in his last years like his father” and second, he “fears a power battle that may occur amongst his sons.”
Kim Tae San was once an elite official in North Korea working in the light industry ministry but defected to South Korea in 2002.
Kim said, “By the time Kim Il Sung celebrated his 60th birthday, Kim Jong Il was appointed as the next successor. In comparison, Kim Jong Il is 65 years old today. Undoubtedly, he has high interest over the next successor.” However, Kim analyzed, “It is true that Kim Jong Il also considers the fact that he may become a scarecrow like his father in his last days.”
“Even Kim Il Sung needed consent from his son to spend some money”
“Economic power was handed to Kim Jong Il from the 70’s and by the mid-80’s, even Kim Il Sung needed consent from his son to spend some money” Kim said indicating the idle position of Kim Il Sung much like a scarecrow. Kim added, “Knowing this fact, there is no reason for him (Kim Jong Il) to unofficially nominate any successors.”
Kim stated, “From the 1980s, all economic documents presented before Kim Il Sung were delegated to Kim Jong Il. Without Kim Jong Il’s signature on the documents, nothing could be implemented.”
Kim elaborated on the second reason for an uncertain successor. He analyzed, “Kim Jong Il does not want to see a power struggle amongst his sons.”
He said, “Officially, Kim Jong Nam (35) whose mother is Sung Hae Rim could be crowned successor as it is customary to nominate the first son. However, if Jong Cheol (26) and Jong Woon (23) wish to be included, then a power battle would be inevitable.”
Furthermore, he explained that times had changed since the generation where Kim Jong Il ousted his uncle Kim Young Joo out of position and overcame his half-brother Kim Pyong Il in the 70s.
Kim said, “During the 70s, Kim Jong Il favorably became the next leader as a result of Kim Il Sung’s glory and absolute support. However, Kim Jong Il has not produced any significant changes and so there are concerns that the people will not cooperate to a successor of descent.”
On the other hand, regarding the future of restoring North Korea’s economy, Kim reprimanded, “If there is no fundamental opening or reform, there is no possible way that the North Korean economy will be able to stand.”
He said, “Presently, about 70% of all electrical demand in North Korea is not being catered for. At the least, the ratio of real operations barely reaches 40%” and added, “First priority for electricity distribution is propaganda idolizing Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il, and second, supplying electricity to the munitions department. No wonder there are electrical failures in the major cities.”
Kim commented, “Operations have ceased in Shinuiju shoe factories and Pyongyang Textile Manufacturing due to a lack of raw materials and the $80mn worth of materials provided by South Korea is redistributed to the munitions department.”
