It is expected that the Central Committee of the Party will elect Kim Jong Il’s second son, Kim Jong Cheol as the Chairman’s successor around 2011 when he turns 30 years old.

Cheong Seong Chang, director of the Inter-Korean Relations Studies Programs at the Sejong Institute said that at the present time Kim Jong Cheol is the mostly likely candidate to succeed Kim Jong Il in his writing submitted for a meeting held on Thursday at the Seoul Foreign Correspondence Club sponsored by the Institute for Peace and Cooperation.

“If Kim Jong Cheol is unable to succeed Kim Jong Il due to his health conditions, Kim Jong Il would nominate his third son, Kim Jong Woon as his heir,” the director said. “The official successor, whoever that is, will try to consolidate his power within the party through the Guidance Department. Once that is done, he will use the leverage to hold a grip on the army, state’ organs and workers’ organizations

The director said, “Suppose Kim Jong Il falls from power within years because of a coup or health conditions. The one who replaces Kim Jong Il would not have as much charisma and power as the Chairman does.”

“In the post Kim Jong Il era, the current absolute one-man leadership will likely be replaced with a collective leadership system led by a group of party and military elites who will not let go of their privileges” the director said.

The director provided the following list of events, which has to do with the ongoing heir designation business in the North.

▲ Beginning of the personality cult of Ko Yong Hee (Kim Jong Cheol’s mother) since 2002 summer.
▲ Suspension of Jang Sung Taek from his post as the first vice director of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party in March, 2004.
▲ Promotion of “Military-First Policy” across the country
▲ Dispatch of Three Revolutionary Teams (for ideological, cultural and technological revolution) to the provincial areas.
▲ Rapid change of generations

With regards to the heir designation business, the director particularly paid his attention to changes that have made since 2003 such as Jang Sung Taek’s suspension and a purge of his aides.

“In his rise to power, Kim Jong Il played a power game with his uncle Kim Young Joo. Kim Jong Il won, and Kim Young Joo, then the second most powerful man in the North, had to step down his post as the head of Guidance Department,” said the director.

“Following Kim Il Song’s death, Jang Sung Taek was de facto considered the second most important man. However, he disappeared from the eyes of the public after Kim Jong Il made an inspection tour to industrial complexes in the downtown of Kangye of Jagang Province in early July, 2003,” the director said.

The director also stressed the fact that Jang Sung Taek’s disappearance took place right after Hwang Jang Yop, the president of Committee for Democratization of North Korea, spoke at the Korean National Assembly Member’s Building on July 4th, 2003 under the title “Debate on defectors and human rights in North Korea.”

At the debate, Hwang said, “Even if the Kim regime collapses, there are some individuals who can replace Kim Jong Il. As of now, Jang Sung Taek is the one with the most potential, and he is far better than Kim Jong Nam (Kim Jong Il’s first son)”

The director Cheong asserted that Jang Sung Taek must have been purged by Ko Yong Hee and her aides who took advantage of the chairman Hwang’s words and accused Jang Sung Taek of being a schemer looking out for a chance to overthrow Kim Jong Il.