At 9:45 on the morning of the 25th, North Korea carried out a second nuclear test. Although it was predicted, indeed announced, North Korea moved more quickly than the international community had predicted.
It had only been a month since the United Nations (UN) Security Council announced sanctions against North Korea, and a spokesperson for the North Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs subsequently warned, “If the UN does not immediately apologize, then we will conduct another nuclear test.”
So, it has been suggested by various sources that this was a well-signposted move designed to improve Pyongyang’s negotiating leverage while both gaining recognition as an established nuclear power and strengthening the solidarity of its regime following the apparent designation of a successor.
The North also may have chosen to time the test to coincide with U.S. Memorial Day (25th) so as to demonstrate its military significance in response to the U.S.’ policy of neglect, a policy that North Korea may have felt the U.S. was not applying to other states such as Iran.
Finally, North Korea may have wished to advertise its improved technological capabilities so as to maintain its position as an exporter of weaponry.
◆ Intent to negotiate with the U.S. by securing position as a “nuclear power”
When North Korea attempted its first nuclear test in 2006, the opinion of the international community was divided over whether the test was a success or a failure. Since radioactive isotopes were subsequently detected its occurrence was not in doubt, but many analysts saw the test as a “fizzle,” a test that hadn’t worked properly, and this appeared to show clear limitations to North Korean nuclear capabilities.
Accordingly, the negotiating power of the North vis-a-vis its nuclear capability was also seen as being limited. Consequently, the North must have felt the need to position itself as a genuine nuclear power by conducting an indisputably successful second test in anticipation of negotiations with the U.S.
Yoon Duk Min, a professor at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and Diplomacy, agrees, “North Korea faithfully and consistently took steps to develop its nuclear weapons. It saw the problematic technical and political issues surrounding the 2006 test, and carried out a second in order to raise confidence in the technological prowess of its nuclear devices.”
Lee Gi Dong, a Senior Researcher at the Institute for National Security Strategy commented on the political angle, “After absolutely confirming its position as a nuclear power, its strategy is to negotiate with the U.S. The message here is that the U.S. should stop insisting on the North’s ‘nuclear abandonment’ or ‘denuclearization’ and negotiate one nuclear power to another.”
Kim Young Soo, a professor at Sogang University, said, “With the U.S.-South Korea Summit coming up in June, the North’s aim is to secure its position as an established nuclear power beforehand, and then lead any future negotiations. The nuclear test had to take place sooner than planned to satisfy Kim Jong Il’s desire to draw the eyes and ears of the world.”
◆ A nuclear test to formalize succession and improve solidarity of regime
The Chosun Central News Agency (KCNA) also announced on test day, “The successful nuclear test has greatly stirred up our army and people who have stepped up as one for the 150-Day Battle, and has kindled a new revolutionary surge of flames to open the doors of a strong nation.”
Such a proclamation from the North Korean authorities, along with the nuclear status which the North hopes the second nuclear test will confer, seems to suggest that the nuclear test satisfied a definite domestic political agenda.
Then, it has been proposed that the test was to assist in consolidating the regime and to prepare the foundations for the impending succession, a task that has taken on more urgency since rumors of Kim Jong Il’s serious illness in August of last year.
“North Korea has been encountering slackness in its regime and economic and diplomatic hardship since Kim’s illness. This move may well be a stepping stone to cement in the succession system,” suggested Professor Yoon.
Lee explained, “The North must have considered the need to define the achievements of the successor. Now that a nuclear test has been executed, events like the official succession can take place in due course.”
In addition, it has been suggested that a nuclear test being carried out during the mourning period for the former President Roh Moo Hyun may also be a sign of the fact that the inter-Korean relationship is no longer a factor in North Korea’s thought processes. One expert on North Korea said, ‘[Through the recent test] the fact that inter-Korean relations are no longer a critical variable to North Korea has been confirmed.”
◆ A display of progress in North Korea’s nuclear capability
It certainly seems that through the recent nuclear test, North Korea has demonstrated an improved nuclear capability over the first test.
The power and size of the second blast can be accurately calculated after detecting and measuring xenon and krypton isotopes in the water and air surrounding the test site, and they are not released immediately from the underground chamber which held the device.
However, the earthquake which accompanied this test measured 4.5-4.7 on the Richter scale, which is much stronger than the 3.9 observed during the first nuclear test. This is because there was either an increase in the amount of plutonium used or a significant advancement in North Korean nuclear technology.
Seoul University professor Lee Eun Chul (Department of Nuclear Physics) said, “It is difficult to accurately assess the nuclear weapons capability due to the fact that radioactive gases have not been emitted yet.”
