Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, who has visited Pyongyang twice before but never had a private “audience” with Kim Jong Il, arrived in Pyongyang this morning. His visit is attracting a great deal of attention domestically and internationally.
Chosun Central News Agency reported on April 26 that this effort is being spearheaded by the Elders, a consortium of global leaders concerned with humanitarian issues. Aside from Carter, the group includes former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari, former Norwegian Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland, and former Irish President Mary Robinson—all of whom are also in Pyongyang.
Since the visit was planned at North Korea’s invitation, South Korean diplomatic circles believe that the Elders group, including Carter, will likely meet with Kim Jong Il.
It is assumed that Kim Jong Il will utilize this visit as a convenient opportunity to bolster his political standing. Since North Korea has been conducting a charm offensive since early 2011, Kim will likely express North Korea’s intention to denuclearize, drawing South Korea and the U.S. back to the negotiating table. In addition, Kim Jong Il may express his desire for the ‘three-phase way’ to resume the six-party talks: first, through North and South delegates talks, then bilateral talks between North Korea and the U.S., and finally the six-party talks including the Koreas, China, Russia, Japan, and the U.S.
Notably, during a recent press conference, the Elders stated their desire to conclude a peace treaty between the North and the U.S. As such, the meeting may result in some interesting proposals and ideas regarding the peace treaty issue, which North Korea has stressed in negotiations in recent years.
An anonymous researcher of a national policy institute postulated that “[Kim] will try to turn the situation on the Korean Peninsula to his advantage by using the occasion of Carter’s visit to portray a dramatic meeting between Carter and Kim Jong Il, thus portraying political effectiveness.”
He continued: “The U.S. has emphasized the importance of inter-Korean talks in advance of the six-party talks and has been examining food aid to North Korea, which has been deemed unfavorable by South Korea. In this situation, Kim Jong Il is likely to employ a charm offensive by meeting with Carter in order to make things difficult for the South Korean administration.”
Yoon Duk Min, professor at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and Security, told The Daily NK, “There is a possibility that Kim Jong Il may meet Carter since he managed to escape the nuclear crisis in 1994 through Carter’s visit to North Korea.” However, the U.S. emphasized that Carter visited there as an individual, while the South Korean leadership maintained its stance that change in North Korea’s attitude must precede a political event.
A Blue House official noted that “Carter’s visit to Pyongyang will not influence the political situation on the Korean Peninsula. Even though the North can discuss contentious issues with South Korea’s administration, Kim has sought to meet with Carter. It means that there must be some other political purpose.”
Meanwhile, Kim Jong Il is in Pyongyang as of now, as the KCNA reports that he watched a commemorative performance of the veteran choir to celebrate the 79th founding day of the People’s Army with Kim Jong Eun. Even though the KCNA has not reported the details where and when it was held according its convention, the performances of the veteran choir have been held at the April 25 House of Culture in Moranbong-district, Pyongyang to commemorate the People’s Army founding day.
Carter and his companions will use the visit to meet with influential individuals from other countries, as well. After visiting Pyongyang, the group will meet with South Korean Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Kim Sung Hwan and Minister of Unification Hyun In Taek.
