North Korea recently kicked out South Korean government officials from Kaesong and launched a missile into the West Sea (Yellow Sea). And through its media, North Korea bombarded the Lee Myung Bak administration with slander. What should be done regarding this attack by Pyongyang.
The irrational reaction of the North Korean regime was expected long before President Lee’s inauguration, so there is no need for either the South Korean government or the media to overreact. In particular, the pro-Sunshine policy media in Seoul should not exaggerate the North Korean threat.
First of all, since this disturbance from the North is intended to test the new South Korean government, reacting to it or asking for negotiations first will result in loss. The new President and other top government officials must abstain from even commenting on it. Total disregard is the first step.
Secondly, President Lee needs to reach an agreement with his American counterpart over the North Korean nuclear issue at the U.S.-ROK summit. Secretary of State Rice and Assistant Secretary Hill must have realized by now that Kim Jong Il has no intention of denuclearization. Thus, as the denuclearization process within the Six Party Talks continues, Seoul and Washington must agree on how the other five parties could contribute to the actual denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
In his visit to Washington this week, President Lee Myung Bak is expected to sign an agreement with George W. Bush and needs to urge the U.S. government to negotiate with China on a strategic level. South Korea will then pursue advanced negotiations concerning China-Korean cooperation. Seoul must help China acknowledge that cooperation with the South is more advantageous than that with the North. For the sake of perpetual peace on the Korean Peninsula, China-South Korean cooperation should be firmly established.
Thirdly, it is necessary to force Kim Jong Il to focus on domestic issues.
If there is something threatening going on inside North Korea, Kim Jong Il can not afford to pay too much attention to inter-Korean affairs. Therefore, the new strategy on North Korea needs to be focused on directing Kim Jong Il’s attention to the problems within his own country. South Korea’s National Intelligence Service has a role to play here.
Fourth, through the Kaesong incident, Kim Jong Il must realize how disadvantageous his irrational acts are. It is Kim Jong Il who takes advantage of Kaesong, not South Korea. We need to wait for the North to request a solution first.
Fifth, the biggest threat for Kim Jong Il is the U.S.-South Korea military alliance. Realistically speaking, only power and money tame Kim Jong Il, not words. The new government in Seoul must show Kim Jong Il just how powerful the alliance is in the near future.
The North Korea of the past is totally different from that of the post-2000 era. In the 1970s and 80s, North Korea was never this open and up-front when it came to provoking the South. It was this way in the 1990s, too. Instead, they secretly sent spies and submarines while publicly asking for negotiations.
However, since 2000, North Korea has been rattling chains, calling attention to its activities. When gunboats clashed in the West Sea, they merely barked before. Before nuclear weapons were actually tested, the North Korea had been threatening to test them for over a year and a half. The difference in demeanor could be interpreted as a difference of approach between Kim Il Sung and his son. However, it also shows that Kim Jong Il is in weak position. Empty cans are simply noisy and nothing more. It would be beneficial for negotiations to realize that our counterpart is weaker than we are.
The time to change the atmosphere of negotiations between the South and the North has come. Now, South Korea must take the initiative.
