The results of the investigation into the causes of the Cheonan incident are scheduled to be released on or around May 20th; however, both South Korea and the United States appear to be busy preparing a response on the assumption that responsibility for it lies with North Korea.
If this does indeed turn out to be the case, Pyongyang is likely to face pressure from all corners of the international community. The North Korean authorities’ standard trick of improving their bargaining power and the internal solidarity of their system by building anxiety on the Korean Peninsula through military provocation may turn out to have been somewhat counterproductive, though to what degree remains to be seen.
The countermeasures being reviewed by South Korea and the United States include a UN resolution and sanctions; strengthening the ROK-US Combined Defense Posture; reviving psychological warfare broadcasts into North Korea across the DMZ; and cutting off North Korea’s income by halting visible trade between the two.
Especially, South Korea and the United States are said to have almost reached a consensus on their plans vis a vis the UN, ROK-US Combined Defense Posture and a statement strengthening the ROK-US alliance.
According to one South Korean government official on May 13th, “If the Cheonan incident is confirmed as North Korea’s deed, representatives of the South Korean and U.S. governments will announce joint punishment measures,” while Yu Myung Hwan, the South Korean Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, commented on May 11th, “It the Cheonan incident is found to have been done by North Korea, we will make our best diplomatic effort on things like United Nations sanctions.”
Regarding the matter, North Korea experts have told the South Korean government to concentrate on reinforcing the ROK-US military alliance, suggesting that deterrence should be reestablished and surveillance of North Korean submarines and semi-submersibles should be reinforced.
Hong Hyun Ik, Senior Research Fellow at the Sejong Institute, stated during an interview with The Daily NK on May 14th, “The most effective method is to have a deterrent to prevent North Korean provocations via the ROK-US military alliance. Especially, our naval power has to be strengthened.”
Another anonymous North Korea expert added, “Even though military retaliation is difficult, the most realistic method is to reinforce the ROK-US military alliance using the Cheonan incident as an opportunity. We have to deliver a message stating that if a North Korean submarine is spotted by the South Korean navy, immediate measures will be taken.”
Elsewhere, the government is reviewing ways to cut off the cash income of the North Korean leadership. Especially, ways of halting imports of North Korean goods manufactured by the military and reducing the trade between the two Koreas are being actively reviewed.
According to North Korean defectors, currently there are hundreds of foreign currency-earning companies, most of them operated by North Korean military units. Much of the earned foreign currency flows to the North Korean leadership.
The government is preparing a sanctions package roughly equivalent to North Korea’s freezing and confiscation measures in the Mt. Geumgang district at the end of last month. This sanctions package against North Korea could also be linked to the Cheonan incident.
North Korean sand and marine products are included in the sanction package. In 2008, North Korean sand worth approximately $70 million was imported by South Korea, and marine products worth about $150 million were brought in during 2009.
One government official stated, “The exportation of marine products is handled by the North Korean military or the foreign currency-earning companies under the authorities. If marine product trading is stopped, the North Korean authorities get hurt.”
Also the government is reviewing a complete halt to trade between two Koreas, excluding the Kaesong Industrial Complex. In this case, the effect on North Korea will be significant since it earns approximately $0.2 billion annually in this way.
According to the Ministry of Unification, the scale of imports excluding the Kaesong Industrial Complex last year was $245.19 million, and that amount less expenses like shipping, cost of customs clearance and loading and unloading was delivered to North Korea in payment.
Also, the scale of the trade in secondary manufactured goods from places other than Kaesong last year was $254.04 million, with the payment going to North Korea estimated at 10~15% of the total ($25~38 million).
The government is allegedly also considering resuming psychological warfare across the demilitarized zone (DMZ), a move which could cause harm to North Korea without any loss to South Korea.
North Korea is sensitive to leaflets and psychological broadcasts. Expert opinion is that the strategy, which stopped during the Kim Dae Jung administration, affects both North Korean citizens and soldiers, putting the North Korean leadership under enormous pressure.
In conclusion, Hong Hyun Ik stated, “The best method of pressuring the Kim Jong Il leadership while causing no damage to North Korean citizens is to block the inflow of cash. There are ways of blocking the influx of cash by temporarily halting North-South Korea Economic Cooperation while also considering the safety of our citizens who are involved.”
He added, “Resuming broadcasts toward North Korea could worsen the relationship with North Korea, but if the South Korean administration wants to do that then broadcasts into North Korea informing them about the development of South Korea instead of just criticizing them could put significant pressure on the North Korean leadership.”
Additionally, the South’s administration has been using all available diplomatic channels to persuade international society to agree with the South’s planned measures and bring about international understanding of the Cheonan incident. This is presumably intended to push the UN Security Council to deal with the incident. In order to do so, Wi Sung Lac, South Korea’s Special Representative for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs is preparing the ground as head of a task force team.
However, some say that possible UN sanctions resulting from the Cheonan incident may be symbolic rather than practical because UN sanctions are already in place. Therefore, the South Korean administration has been planning practical countermeasures to press effectively on North Korea.
Regarding the effectiveness of sanctions against North Korea, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Yu Myung Hwan pointed out, “If international financial organizations put North Korea on a blacklist, North Korea will be hurt.”
Choi Jin Wook, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, agreed, saying, “If UN sanctions against North Korea bring about the monitoring of all kinds of goods flowing into North Korea from China and North Korean banking, this will be a source of pressure on the North regime.”
Hong also foresaw, “Even though the North is under UN Security Council sanctions, additional sanctions from the Cheonan incident will make North Korea more isolated in the international community. For instance, blocking supplies of luxury goods to the North’s leadership will have an effect.”
