It has been six months since Kim Jong Il’s death. Contrary to international concerns, Kim Jong Eun appears to have landed softly in position. However, a lot of North Korean people still remain skeptical. Some are sure that the new broom will bring change; however, others merely anticipate more of the same.
The expectations of some people are not unrelated to the ‘festive atmosphere’ which continued throughout the first quarter of the year. As one Pyongyang source told Daily NK, “After comrade Kim Jong Eun took over the country, state distribution increased.” Orders were handed out stating that five days of food should be handed out to families in all corners of the nation to celebrate Lunar [Chinese] New Year in January. Ultimately, rations differed from region to region, but there was nobody who didn’t get at least three days of food.
Then, on Kim Jong Il’s birthday (February 16th), gift boxes from Kim Jong Eun were handed out to provincial and municipal Party cadres. The packs included fruit, oil and processed foods imported from China. At the same time, ordinary people received ‘special distribution’ of about three to five days of food.
But the employment of special distribution to engender a feeling of progress really reached its peak on the 100th anniversary of Kim Il Sung’s birth on April 15th, when the special distribution list contained a total of 15 items. Incomparable with Kim Il Sung’s days, of course, but still good compared to the Kim Jong Il era. There was sticky rice, soybean oil, pork, sugar, rice liquor, fish, confectionary and fruit. There were even slips which could be exchanged for soap, socks and other manufactured goods at state-run shops worth 40,000-50,000 won at market exchange rates.
Kim Jong Eun took the utmost advantage of this festive atmosphere in his public speeches, emphasizing the need to “improve the people’s lives”. This was the image from the start. During his first public speech on the Day of the Sun, Kim said, “Our people will not have to tighten their belts anymore”. During his speech for the 66th anniversary of the founding of the Chosun Children’s Union, he underscored, “We need to cultivate and create a bright reality from the seeds planted by comrade Kim Jong Il so as to improve the lives of the people.”
However, on the dark side of this festive atmosphere there existed a growing public burden. One North Hamkyung Province source pointed out, “The comrade Kim Jong Eun era did bring slightly more rations, but ultimately it was the people who made it happen.”
Notably, in the first quarter of this year the people were faced with paying for: ▲ Kim Jong Il memorials; ▲ April events for Kim Il Sung’s 100th anniversary; and ▲ projects to try and increase agricultural productivity.
In January, farmers from cooperative farms and workers in state enterprises had to give 500-5,000 won per household for the construction of Kim Jong Il memorial towers nationwide. Students had to come up with 300-600g of copper. On top of that, 10kg of scrap metal was collected per person in advance of the April 15th events. Those who failed to give faced missing out on the upcoming special distribution.
In Musan, North Hamkyung Province, the cost of local beautification and arts performances was handed on to the people; 20,000 won per household. In Chongjin, 10,000 won was paid per household to send supplies to local bases in commemoration of Chosun People’s Army Founding Day on April 25th. It is unlikely that Chongjin was the only place where this occurred. There was also the annual call for fertilizer.
On May 22nd, mass mobilization for the planting season began. This one month ‘agricultural battle’ was extended for a second month due to delays caused by weather. It was a “70-day battle”, according to the official branding.
So, we can say that while state distribution increased, so did the burden of provision passed on to the people.
However, there is more to it than that. The most important thing is that in the markets people are still feeling bullish. This is because there are clear signs of relaxation. Since 2005-6 market traders had faced a dizzying array of restrictions on activities, from price limits to age limits to reduced opening hours to foreign currency usage to the banning of South Korean products.
However, the six months under Kim Jong Eun rule have been, by and large, the most tranquil in ten years, the result of no distinct market control policy being iplemented. Markets were temporarily suspended late last year after Kim Jong Il’s death, to be sure, but once they reopened they largely continued unimpeded. Even the announcements that were made (compelling state prices to be adhered to, for example) did not last long, and since February it has been business as usual.
As a result, food prices and exchange rates have remained stablem, something which is sure to placate public opinion. At the end of last year, not long before Kim Jong Il died, rice had briefly traded for 5,000 won/kg, but it has since dropped to hover at around 3,000 won, while the U.S. Dollar has been passing back and forth across the 4,000 won boundary.
North Korean sources predict that this will continue at least until the end of this year. The belief is that since Central Party authority over production and distribution has now become meaningless, local and central authorities will acquiesce to market forces, while at the same time keeping the symbolic state distribution system on life support using non-tax burdens passed to the people and overseas foreign currency earning enterprises.
This state of affairs is largely appreciated by the people. As a Shinuiju source commented, “In essence, because the authorities are not controlling the markets, there is not much negativity in public opinion. The people’s perspective is that it is far better for the authorities to allow them to trade while taking a bit off the top than to give state distribution but block access to trade.”
However, there is still the risk that as Kim Jong Eun becomes more confident in his power to control events, he might take back some of the newfound market freedoms. A Yangkang Province source pointed to these concerns, saying, “Right now our money has no value as money. There are even rumors that they will do another currency redenomination soon. Allowing the markets means that they are allowing capitalism, and there are significant doubts as to whether out country can really go in that direction.”
