Although we have yet to confirm Kim Jong Woon as the successor to Kim Jong Il, the evidence is growing, and Institute of North Korea Studies researcher Yoo Dong Yeol has been outlining the five key steps any aspiring successor needs to take before grasping firmly the reins of the dictatorship.
Researcher Yoo explained all in his paper, “Five steps of the North Korean power succession,” which was released in the July issue of Monthly Chosun.
He expanded on the background, “In light of the process by which Kim Jong Il was promoted by Kim Il Sung, Jong Woon will need to go through five steps to the North Korean succession.”
Yoo went on, explaining the first step, “If he is the successor to Kim Jong Il then he needs to go through the Workers Party formalities. As a matter of form, Kim Jong Woon must be appointed successor by the General Assembly of the Central Committee of the Party, and additionally be anointed by a Party convention, of which none have been held since 1980. By these means, Jong Woon’s accession to the throne must be publicized.”
According to Yoo’s prediction, if a party convention were to be held, a likely time would be 2012 when the strong and prosperous state is supposed to arrive.
He moved on, “The next step is to grasp the power of the military and the Party from the position of First Vice Director of the Guidance Department of the Party or committee member of the National Defense Commission. However, there is no verifiable information that Jong Woon has been handed either of these high positions.”
Third, “While Kim Jong Il was the subject of an idolization project for around 20 years before becoming the successor, in Jong Woon’s case there is no remarkable idolization project so far, with the exception of a song for General Kim called ‘Step.’”
So, “The crucial matter which needs to be attended to is that most North Korean people do not even know who Kim Jong Woon is, and North Korean media have not mentioned his name at all.”
Fourth, Yoo said, is connected to the third, “The successor needs to be involved somehow with juche revolutionary ideology or military-first politics, because the successor to the leader should succeed to the revolutionary tradition and achieve juche revolutionary feats as well; Jong Woon’s actions have yet to be noted or lionized.”
Finally, he explained the last step, “Jong Woon could then take the lead in work regarding South Korea, if he were the successor. However, there is still no information on that.”
“The succession of Kim Jong Woon might be successful if Kim Jong Il kept power for the a forthcoming decade and Jong Woon continued being groomed for succession,” Yoo concluded, explaining the need for time to be given to the process.
He foresaw, though, “If Kim Jong Il was dead in three to five years, the possibility of Jong Woon holding onto the leadership in the long term would be low. There is a high possibility that after a regency period he would be dispensed with.”
He analyzed, “If so, other scenarios are feasible: Kim Jong Nam could return, or Jang Sung Taek, or a cooperative leadership system with Jang and military authorities could rule.”
