Yesterday’s artillery exercise on Yeonpyeong Island passed off without a North Korean response. The South Korean military then remained alert to additional provocations long after the conclusion of the exercise; however, the situation remained quiet.
It is difficult to rule out North Korea provoking South Korea again soon enough, of course, but the fact that the exercise was completed despite North Korean threats of full-scale war can nevertheless be evaluated as being a result of South Korea’s firm attitude.
The reason, according to Jang Jin Sung, a North Korean defector with experience in the United Front Department of the Chosun Workers’ Party, was that “North Korea must have felt the weight of any provocation after South Korea and the United States conveyed their will to respond. Conducting the practice despite the North Korean threats is largely to display the firm will of the South Korean military to the North Korean authorities.”
Jack Pritchard, the president of the Korea Economic Institute and a recent visitor to North Korea recently commented, “(North Korea) believes that South Korea’s response will be limited regardless of what actions they may take.” Enforcing the artillery exercise signaled in part an attempt to prevent provocations based on such North Korean misjudgments.
On this, Jang stated, “North Korea did not provoke since South Korea was ready to respond, but there is a possibility that they will try to respond in another form in the near future. We need to send a consistent signal that provocations will be punished.”
Secondly, this artillery exercise also represents South Korea breaking away from the ingrained fear of war which has allowed previous North Korean provocations to pass off freely.
Prior to the exercise, Sohn Hak Gyu, the Democratic Party chairman claimed, “Suspending the artillery exercise will not hurt our armed forces’ honor. Winning without a war is what powerful countries should choose.” Another high level Democratic Party member, Chung Dong Young added, “We have a President who is playing with fire.”
However, now criticisms of the Democratic Party are increasing, since they tried to paint a routine training exercise to achieve full readiness as the secret story of an impending war.
Finally, the exercises marked an understanding that the area around Yeonpyeong Island is South Korean territory, and that military exercises are a sovereign right, an important act at a time when North Korea seems keen to neutralize the current location of the Northern Limit Line (NLL).
North Korea asserted via a telephone statement in the name of the head of the North Korean delegation to the North-South General-level talks on December 17th, “If South Korea implements the artillery exercise on Yeonpyeong Island; we will have to conduct 2nd and 3rd unexpected self-defensive attacks to protect the waters of the Republic (North Korea).”
North Korea has been increasingly acting as if Yeonpyeong Island were in their country’s waters, logic which is garnering tacit support from nations like China and Russia via their claims that the training is raising tensions on the Korean Peninsula, and calling for it not to go ahead.
Speaking yesterday, Yoon Duk Min, a professor at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security said, “It is important that we not be overpowered by North Korea. From a situation in which North Korea had become conspicuous in its intention to neutralize the NLL, and other nations like China and Russia took North Korea’s side, South Korea made clear its firm intention to protect the five islands in the West Sea through the training.”
