[imText1]Upcoming elections in both South Korea and the United States next year are likely to have noticeable effects on policy toward the North, especially if they result in Seoul moving left while Washington moves right.
Doug Bandow, a senior fellow from the Cato Institute, spoke about the possible impact of next year’s political changes during a conference held today in Seoul. Entitled “2012 Major Countries’ Leadership Changes in Northeast Asia and North Korean Nuclear Weapons”, Bandow used his lecture to analyze possible Republican policies toward North Korea should America select a conservative candidate and cast aside President Barack Obama.
Putting forward Mitt Romney as the obvious front-runner in the race for the Republican Party nomination, Bandow predicted, “A Romney administration would likely be more inclined to confront and less inclined to talk to the North.” He also pointed out that other influential figures within the Republican Party could also press whoever became president in a more radical direction.
“For instance, John McCain, who would become chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee if the Republicans take control of the Senate, has introduced the ‘Iran, North Korea, and Syria Sanctions Consolidation Act’, which would penalize states aiding Iranian nuclear weapon development,” he noted, adding that McCain has also called for “regime change” in the North..
According to Bandow, should a Republican president be elected next year he or she would be likely to start out with a relatively hardline position.
“To step back from a confrontational policy would be seen as weak, and Republican candidates would be unlikely to make that concession,” he explained, while noting at the same time that it seems that any new South Korean government would end up taking a more aggressive stance than the current administration. As evidenced by South Korea’s recent resumption of aid to North Korea via international organizations and the pursuance of talks with the Kim regime, Bandow pointed out that even President Lee appears to have moderated his previous stance.
He concluded, therefore, that the current U.S.-South Korea relationship could grow more difficult if the respective national elections result in divergent voices. “The Obama and Lee governments have worked together particularly well because they agreed on policy,” he said, but adding that, “If Washington ends up determined on confrontation while Seoul moves toward expanded engagement, the relationship could become rocky and policy toward North Korea could deteriorate.”
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