The Chosun Workers’ Party Delegates’ Conference, which North Korea was due to hold in early September, appears to have been postponed, and attention is now focusing on the cause.

South Korean experts have made four major suggestions: ▲ a national crisis; ▲ problems with Kim Jong Il’s health condition; ▲ inadequate preparations for the event; and ▲ a failure to establish a satisfactory domestic atmosphere in which to select successor Kim Jong Eun.

In particular, most experts concur with the view that the atmosphere for the hosting of such a stage-managed “political festival” could not be established following recent flooding.

▲ Cheong Seong Chang, Director, Inter-Korean Relations Studio Program, Sejong Institute, Seoul

“North Korea is currently in a crisis state. Recently, there was a big flood around Shinuiju and Dandong, and Kim Jong Il had to put in place an emergency aid program for the citizens of Shinuiju, even mobilizing military hardware like helicopters. Judging from the fact that Kim Jong Il had to employ the military to rescue stranded citizens, we can imagine how serious the flood damage in North Korea was. North Korea requesting emergency aid from the United Nations is unusual as well.

Heavy rain has poured down in South Korea, to the extent that people talked of it in terms of a ‘water bomb’; North Korea must have faced even more severe damage due to a lack of trees on slopes. There have been power failures and refugees created by the flood. The Chosun Workers’ Party Delegates’ Conference is a political event, in other words a festival. If North Korea were to host such an event in the midst of power failures, refugees and chaos nationwide, citizens would be unenthusiastic about it and it would mean that the Chosun Workers’ Party Delegates’ Conference had failed.

Also, heavy rain has caused roads to be swept away, bringing up the possibility of representatives from the provinces not being able to reach Pyongyang. Therefore, “the Chosun Workers’ Party Delegates’ Conference was postponed due to a lack of a quorum” is another possible scenario.”

▲ Park Young Ho, Senior Researcher, Korea Institute for National Unification, Seoul

“Firstly, there is the possibility that the Chosun Workers’ Party Delegates’ Conference was cancelled due problems related to Kim Jong Il’s health. The situation, with representatives from each region gathered in Pyongyang but the conference not yet underway, implies that there is a problem related to Kim Jong Il’s health.

Second, there is the hypothesis that final preparations for the event are not finished. To be more precise, that would mean that Kim Jong Il has not selected the personnel to be nominated to the Central Committee and those to be reshuffled.

Finally, there is the possibility that representative from the provinces failed to reach Pyongyang on time. Therefore, there is also the possibility that preparations were inadequate.”

▲ Kim Do Tae, Professor of Political Science and Diplomacy, Chungbuk National University, North Chungcheon Province

“The main purpose of this Chosun Workers’ Party Delegates’ Conference was not to introduce Kim Jong Eun. North Korea was trying to obtain support from China for its nomination of Kim Jong Eun and sort out the relationship with South Korea. However, during the process, a big flood occurred. Kim Jong Eun needs to be introduced in a festive atmosphere but, due to the flooding, public opinion is chaotic, which means that there is no room for a response.

Also, the level of South Korea’s support is unsatisfactory and neither the South-North dialogue nor Six-Party Talks are progressing well.

North Korea must have decided that the event should not be held at this moment due to a bad situation both domestically and internationally. There is not much for the North Korean leadership to lose by delaying it, therefore, they believe there is no reason to rush the decision.”