A recent paper on Northeast Asian security has pointed out that North Korea’s value as a “strategic buffer zone” for China’s far northeast has declined dramatically, and the country may actually be a burden.
Professor Kim Gang Il of Yanbian University in Yanji, China said in an article presented at a South Korea-China academic conference sponsored by the Institute for Peace Affairs and Yanbian University’s Northeast Asia Research Center, “It is true that North Korea was a strategic buffer zone for China during the Cold War era, but due to the change in international dynamics in Northeast Asia, North Korea no longer fits this role.”
He elaborated, “Rather, the belief that the North has turned into a disadvantageous hot spot region for China is gaining credence.”
Professor Kim said, “The blood alliance relations of the Cold War period between China and North Korea is quickly changing into normalized relations and, in many respects, has entered a new phase, forming a new relationship.”
He explained further, “There is no doubt that North Korea is China’s key neighboring state, but its importance is no longer due to the status as China’s ally, but is tied up with resolving its issues in the region and as a strategic point of cooperation in Northeast Asia.”
Further, he pointed out that China wants North Korea to adjust its policies in a constructive direction to show changes which can be seen as connected with Chinese-style opening and reform. He also claimed, “Since Chinese opening and reform, China seems considerably dissatisfied that North Korea’s policies have not matched those of China.”
He added, “North Korea’s unchanging nature has become a heavy burden for China and also a stumbling block for China’s Northeast Asia strategy. Accordingly, China will lead the change in North Korea from an active viewpoint.”
The professor noted that in the case of the reunification of the Korean Peninsula, “The U.S. will feel the need to participate in the international system in Northeast Asia by working together with each country in the region after having forfeited the reason and basis for its current strategy of restraint in the region.”
Further, he evaluated that the key reason for the three provinces in Northeast China lagging economically has to do with the divided state of the peninsula.
Consequently, he emphasized, “If the peninsula reunifies or if North Korea opens and reforms, the economy of the three Northeast Chinese provinces will be greatly affected, potentially in a very positive direction. Maintaining the status quo on the peninsula ultimately will not bring the greatest gain for the Northeast Asian region, meaning primarily China.”
